新单成交放缓，上游待发充足

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The new order transactions are slowing down, while the upstream has sufficient pending orders, and the price is relatively firm. - The supply has increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises have resumed production, and some off - season reserves will be put on the market in March. - After the Spring Festival, the demand for green - turning fertilizers has gradually started, the compound fertilizer production has recovered, the market sentiment has improved, and the sales volume has increased. However, some melamine plants have been temporarily shut down, and the demand is for rigid procurement. - The international urea price is strong due to the situation in Iran. There is no new news about the domestic export quota, and attention should be paid to the export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Price and Basis: On March 3, 2026, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,819 yuan/ton (+2). The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,860 yuan/ton (0), 1,890 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,890 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 71 yuan/ton (-2), 41 yuan/ton (-2), and 71 yuan/ton (-2) respectively. The urea production profit was 325 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,209 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Supply: As of March 3, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.16% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.60 million tons (+14.56), and the port sample inventory was 17.40 million tons (+0.80) [1]. - Demand: As of March 3, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 33.41% (+8.91%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.91% (-8.26%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-2.29) [1]. 3.2 Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate, with the upside space narrowing. - Inter - period: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3].