格林大华期货早盘提示：铜矿-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile" rating for the steel and ore sector within the black building materials industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The direct impact of the Iran situation on China's steel exports is limited, but the indirect impact on exports is significant, with a short - term monthly export impact of about 1.1624 million tons. The futures market shows little reaction. During the Two Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%, with some blast furnace maintenance plans. The overall impact on iron - water production in Tangshan is limited. Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand declined as expected. The construction industry downstream has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. The current market trading logic is that the expectations of the Two Sessions' policies, infrastructure, and real - estate resumption of work still exist, and the resumption of steel mills' production may increase iron - water output, which supports prices. However, the terminal demand such as real estate is still weak, the iron ore supply - demand is relatively loose, and the port inventory is close to the high level of 180 million tons, which restricts the upward space. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar and iron ore closed up, while hot - rolled coils closed down. At night, rebar closed flat, iron ore closed down, and hot - rolled coils closed up [1] 3.2 Important Information - By 2027, the cumulative comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules will reach 250,000 tons according to the six - department plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - As of February 28, 16 cities have introduced 21 property - market relaxation policies, including Shanghai's "Seven Measures" to lower the entry threshold for non - Shanghai - registered homebuyers, expand the home - purchase eligibility of residents with residence permits, and moderately relax the purchase restrictions in the outer - ring area [1] - From February 23 to March 1, the total transaction (signing) area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival (February 9 - February 15), and the cumulative transaction area since the beginning of this year decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The direct impact of the Iran situation on China's steel exports is limited, but the indirect impact is significant, with a short - term monthly export impact of about 1.1624 million tons. During the Two Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%, with some blast furnace maintenance plans. The overall impact on iron - water production in Tangshan is limited. Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand declined as expected. The construction industry downstream has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. From February 23 to March 1, the total global iron - ore shipment was 3.3407 million tons, a 198,000 - ton increase from the previous period. The total iron - ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.6907 million tons, a 226,000 - ton decrease. The total iron - ore arrival at 47 ports in China was 2.23 million tons, a 911,000 - ton decrease; the total iron - ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2.1469 million tons, a 55,000 - ton decrease. Last week, the daily iron - water output was 233,280 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The current market trading logic is that the expectations of the Two Sessions' policies, infrastructure, and real - estate resumption of work still exist, and the resumption of steel mills' production may increase iron - water output, which supports prices. However, the terminal demand such as real estate is still weak, the iron ore supply - demand is relatively loose, and the port inventory is close to the high level of 180 million tons, which restricts the upward space. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term. The support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3100. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3180, and the pressure level is 3300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the pressure level is 770. For single - side trading, it is recommended to operate in the short - term or wait for opportunities and set stop - losses. For arbitrage, based on the night - session closing price, the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 147. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar at a low price and set the take - profit at over 200 [1]