股债跷跷板明显，国债期货大多收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, the Politburo meeting's signal of loose monetary policy, unchanged LPR, continued expectations of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. - The repurchase rate has declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2606 basis. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [10]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [11]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 99.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51 and a growth rate of 0.52%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.9164, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026 and a growth rate of 0.38%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.23%. DR007 is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 0.96%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.96% [12]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change situation of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures [14][15][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local bonds [25][26][24]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4TS - T, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 3T - TL, 2TS - 3TF + T) [37][32][34]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [41][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [45][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [53][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [59][60].