双硅同步震荡下跌，基本面仍待好转

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range-bound oscillations. The supply side has significantly contracted, providing strong price support, but high polysilicon inventories have been suppressing demand, resulting in a lack of upward price momentum. In a situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large manufacturers after the holiday and changes in capital sentiment. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side contracted significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side has been sluggish due to downstream cost constraints, and the large inventory is being depleted slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we are waiting for the supply - demand game. After the holiday, silicon wafer enterprises have resumed work, but inventory pressure still exists, and the recent sharp increase in international silver prices has intensified the cost pressure on battery manufacturers. In the short term, attention should be paid to the recovery of supply and demand after the holiday, and in the long - term, the trend of silver prices and the progress of inventory reduction should be monitored [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On March 3, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8315 yuan/ton and closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton (- 1.32%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 334,292 lots, and on March 2, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,779 lots, a change of - 7 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 (- 50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8500 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8500 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 26 was 560,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [2]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy has decreased to varying degrees after the holiday, and most inquiries after the holiday are tentative [2]. - After the holiday, the market sentiment was flat, and combined with the traditional off - season and production cuts by large manufacturers, the recovery of the operating rate was slow, and the supply side contracted [2]. Polysilicon - On March 3, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 45,100 yuan/ton and closing at 43,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 39,340 (40,753 on the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 9,256 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.00 - 55.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventories decreased, while silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics show that polysilicon inventory was 344,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% month - on - month, silicon wafer inventory was 31.06GW, a 3.33% month - on - month increase, polysilicon weekly output was 19,800 tons, a change of - 1.49% month - on - month, and silicon wafer output was 11.35GW, a 12.94% month - on - month increase [4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.07 (- 0.01) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.37 (- 0.01) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.14 (- 0.04) yuan/piece [4]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.43 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.43 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.43 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - Last week, Daqo New Energy, a leading company in the industry, disclosed its Q4 and full - year 2025 performance. The data showed that its operating income decreased by 9.4% quarter - on - quarter to $221.7 million, and it recorded a net loss of $7.3 million attributable to shareholders. This performance report clearly revealed the current price pressure and cost challenges faced by the polysilicon industry. The fact that even leading companies cannot avoid losses has intensified investors' concerns, and the market sentiment has turned pessimistic, with a cold trading atmosphere [5]. - Recently, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules, aiming to promote the efficient purification of valuable components in photovoltaic modules. It encourages the extraction of silver materials from the metal grid lines of crystalline silicon cells and explores the use of non - acidic or weakly acidic solvents for silver leaching to improve the environmental level of the process [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range - bound operation - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range - bound operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain oscillations in the short term - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [6]