宏观情绪影响，镍不锈钢震荡下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, although terminal demand is still weak, tight nickel ore supply, geopolitical conflicts, and rising costs are expected to keep nickel prices in a high - level oscillation. In the stainless - steel market, rising costs and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season are expected to support high - level oscillations, but high inventory and a sluggish real - estate market will limit price increases [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On March 3, 2026, the main Shanghai nickel contract opened at 139,500 yuan/ton and closed at 135,450 yuan/ton, a - 3.16% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 730,033 (+175,596) lots, and the open interest was 218,764 (-349) lots. The price trend was mainly affected by the strengthening US dollar index, stock market fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts [1] - Nickel Ore: The nickel ore market continued to be strong. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes, and Indonesia set a 2026 production target of 209 million tons, mainly for royalty calculation. The supply shortage caused by tightened RKAB quotas in Indonesia continued, and the supply tension was difficult to ease in the short term. There was a transaction of Ni:1.5% grade nickel ore at a premium of $39/wet ton and a CIF price of about $62/wet ton [1] - Spot: Nickel prices dropped significantly, and overall market transactions were light. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. The inquiry atmosphere improved, but actual transactions were limited. The terminal market had not fully resumed production and had a low acceptance of high prices. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 200 yuan/ton to 6,950 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,649 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 287,976 (0) tons [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On March 3, 2026, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 14,390 yuan/ton and closed at 14,185 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,750 (-22,339) lots, and the open interest was 65,361 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the contract showed a pattern of opening high and closing low with a weak oscillation. High - end spot market quotes declined, and the sales side was wait - and - see. The demand side saw an increasing inquiry atmosphere as downstream enterprises gradually resumed production, but the "Golden March and Silver April" peak - season demand had not been fully released, and actual orders were limited. Stainless - steel inventory had accumulated recently, and the market was concerned about the peak - season digestion ability [3] - Spot: The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with purchases mainly on an as - needed basis. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,450 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 14,450 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 355 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,087.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]