Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar, jujube, and rubber sectors are all "oscillating" [1][3][4] Core Views - For the sugar market, short - term macro factors' impact on sugar may weaken. Multiple international organizations are lowering the expected supply surplus of the 2025/26 sugar season. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar has resistance above, and attention should be paid to the support below [1] - The domestic jujube spot market is gradually recovering, but after the post - festival replenishment, the demand will enter a slack season. The jujube futures price still faces strong resistance to rise, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long term [3] - For the rubber market, natural rubber is in a short - term oscillating state due to limited supply news from Southeast Asian producing areas, domestic post - festival inventory build - up, and weak terminal demand. Synthetic rubber may see a weakening of the overall upward momentum of the energy - chemical sector after the initial market sentiment shock, and new news is needed for further upward movement [4] Summary by Directory Sugar Market Review - SR605 contract closed at 5321 yuan/ton yesterday, with a daily decline of 0.45%, and closed at 5306 yuan/ton at night. SR609 contract closed at 5332 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.39%, and closed at 5321 yuan/ton at night [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5314 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5310 - 5390 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton. The price range of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5160 - 5220 yuan/ton, with the price unchanged. The mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5590 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 6.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, 0.7 million tons less than the previous forecast. The global sugar production is expected to be 184.4 million tons, 2.3 million tons less than the previous forecast [1] - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 million tons from the previous forecast; the consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons; the supply surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 million tons [1] - As of February 28, 2025/26 season, India's cumulative cane crushing volume reached 260.896 million tons, an increase of 22.119 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.625 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, an increase of 0.13% year - on - year [1] - Yesterday, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,461, with a daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - Zhengzhou sugar oscillated yesterday, and was strong first and then weak at night. The short - term impact of macro factors on sugar may weaken. Multiple international organizations are lowering the expected supply surplus of the 2025/26 sugar season, mainly due to the actual sugar - making performance in India and Thailand and the potential El Niño threat. The short - term upward pattern of Zhengzhou sugar was damaged last night, and there is still resistance above the main contract [1] Trading Strategy - For the SR605 contract, pay attention to the support at the 5300 mark today. If it breaks through smoothly, short - selling can be considered [1] Jujube Market Review - The CJ605 contract closed at 8895 yuan/ton yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.62%. The CJ609 contract closed at 9170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.66% [3] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 11,852 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.00% [3] - The wholesale price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei yesterday was 9.19 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0 yuan/kg [3] - The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market yesterday was 1, a decrease of 1 compared with the previous day [3] - The number of jujube warehouse receipts yesterday was 3869, with a daily increase of 0 [3] Market Logic - The domestic jujube spot market is gradually recovering, but there is no new news in terms of fundamentals. After the post - festival replenishment, the demand will enter a slack season. Coupled with inventory pressure, the jujube futures price still faces strong resistance to rise. From a technical perspective, the CJ605 contract still has a bearish atmosphere in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to find support at the previous historical low in the future [3] Trading Strategy - Short - sell the CJ605 contract on rallies [3] Rubber Market Review - As of March 3, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,835 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.38%. The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.67%. The closing price of the BR main contract was 13,530 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48% [4] Important Information - Thailand's Makha Bucha Day was yesterday, a public holiday, and there was no raw material price information [4] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [4] - The price of whole latex yesterday was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan or 2.05%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars or 1.45%, equivalent to 14,059 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 1.38% [4] - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts yesterday was 3335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [4] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region yesterday was 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 10,600 - 10,900 yuan/ton [4] - The market prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose yesterday. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market rose 250 yuan/ton to 13,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market rose 300 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton [4] Market Logic - Natural rubber fell from a high yesterday and continued to decline at night. Due to the off - season of rubber supply in Southeast Asian producing areas, there is limited news on the supply side. On the contrary, the post - festival inventory build - up trend in China continues, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, indicating that the terminal demand is not optimistic. There are also reports that tire factory overseas export orders are blocked due to geopolitical conflicts. Natural rubber has quietly declined under the rhythm of "buying the expectation, selling the reality" and will be in an oscillating state in the short term [4] - Synthetic rubber (BR) was in high - level consolidation yesterday. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to an expected reduction in crude oil supply. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether domestic cracking units will reduce their load defensively. The market has different views on the sustainability of this conflict, and new news is needed for BR to continue to strengthen. In the short term, after the initial market sentiment shock, the overall upward momentum of the energy - chemical sector may weaken, and the development of the event needs to be continuously monitored [4] Trading Strategy - Temporarily observe the RU and NR contracts and pay attention to the technical support below. It is recommended to take profits on BR long positions [4]
格林期货早盘提示：白糖，红枣，橡胶系-20260304
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-03-04 03:12