下游接货意愿有限，铅价暂难摆脱震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The processing fees at the mine end remain stable. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead have decreased first and then increased, but the resumption of production is slow. The recycled lead industry is deeply in a loss situation that is difficult to change. [3] - Terminal consumption gradually recovers after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. [3] - Both domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 3, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.76/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. [1] - The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. [1] - The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 3, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,945 yuan/ton and closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 53,661 lots, a decrease of 6,926 lots compared with the previous trading day. [2] - The position was 60,215 lots, a decrease of 3,747 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,020 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton. [2] - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. [2] Inventory - On March 3, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 20 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 3, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [2] Strategy - Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid - to late March and the resumption progress of recycled lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish, paying attention to the breakthrough situation in the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton. [3] - Enterprises with different needs for buying or selling hedging can conduct buying or selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range. [3]