新能源及有色金属日报：地缘冲突引发储能需求担忧，碳酸锂触及跌停-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 3, 2026, the sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures was due to negative sentiment in the demand side. In February 2026, some leading new energy vehicle manufacturers reported a 30% year-on-year drop in monthly sales. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East raised concerns about lithium battery energy storage demand, with a risk of reduced demand. Capital is shifting to precious metals and energy-chemical sectors, and the hype around lithium carbonate is fading, leading it to return to fundamental logic [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate in materials and cell production is still growing rapidly, causing continuous inventory reduction. However, the demand for end - market new energy vehicles and energy storage needs further verification. The current futures market is highly influenced by market sentiment, and short - term interval trading is recommended [3] Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On March 3, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 opened at 170,000 yuan/ton and closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, a - 12.99% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 445,115 lots, and the open interest decreased from 381,552 lots to 339,604 lots. The current basis is 9,520 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 265 lots to 38,196 lots [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 11,500 yuan/ton to 153,000 - 169,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 11,500 yuan/ton to 150,000 - 165,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate decreased by 105 US dollars/ton to 2,280 US dollars/ton [1] - The total spot inventory of lithium carbonate was 100,093 tons, a decrease of 2,839 tons. Among them, smelter inventory increased by 1,462 tons to 18,382 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 4,471 tons to 40,021 tons, and other inventory increased by 170 tons to 41,690 tons. The overall de - stocking pattern continued in February, with accelerated de - stocking in the downstream [1] Strategy - Short - term trading strategy: Short - term interval trading is recommended for the lithium carbonate futures market. For single - side trading, short - term waiting and watching is recommended. There are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]