地缘影响炼厂降负，供应端减量预期提振价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have led to concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and LPG. This has caused domestic olefin plants to potentially reduce their production, leading to an expected decrease in supply and an increase in polyolefin prices [3]. - For PE, in 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. The price increase may be led by non - standard products HD and LD, and then affect the supply and consumption of HD, LLD, and LD. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - For PP, the impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is relatively small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost factors. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price [4]. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,200 yuan/ton (+209), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,223 yuan/ton (+225), the LL North China spot price is 7,000 yuan/ton (+350), the LL East China spot price is 7,100 yuan/ton (+300), the PP East China spot price is 7,030 yuan/ton (+330), the LL North China basis is - 200 yuan/ton (+141), the LL East China basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+91), and the PP East China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (+105) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is - 681.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 1,021.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 2,156.9 yuan/ton (-1,506.5) [1]. - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 3.4 yuan/ton (+260.0), the PP import profit is - 385.5 yuan/ton (+70.0), and the PP export profit is - 68.5 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [2]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the supply of raw materials. Although the planned maintenance of PE upstream in March - April is still relatively small, attention should be paid to the extent of production reduction due to raw material supply. The inventory of upstream and intermediate traders has accumulated rapidly after the Spring Festival. The downstream of PE is gradually resuming work slowly, and the current demand is limited. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - PP: The impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price. The downstream is gradually resuming work slowly, and the inventory of intermediate traders has accumulated [4]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided.