格林期货早盘提示：集运欧线-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping European route is bullish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the Iranian situation, the European container shipping route is expected to see significant price increases, and the EC2604 contract may break through 3000 points. Investors are advised to take bullish operations in the upward trend while setting stop - losses [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the EC2604 contract hit the daily limit [1] 3.2 Important Information - On the late night of March 2nd local time, the advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed, and Iran would attack all ships attempting to pass through the strait. As of March 1st, about 170 container ships with a capacity of 450,000 TEU were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - On March 1st, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced that all ships operating in the Gulf region and those heading to the region should go to the designated safe shelter area and wait until further notice [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 2nd, the underlying index SCFIS closed at 1463.40, a week - on - week decrease of 7% [1] - On February 25th, the SCFI index closed at 398.90, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%, and it is expected to rise significantly this week [1] - After the Iranian situation, shipping companies uniformly added large war surcharges. CMA CGM charges $2,000 per TEU and $3,000 per FEU; Hapag - Lloyd charges $1,500 per 20 - foot standard container and $3,500 per container. MSC and Maersk levy charges per container with similar standards [1] - Shipping companies are supporting prices and controlling empty sailings. On March 10th, MSC directly raised the European route freight rate from $2140 to $2640 per TEU and plans to raise it to $3200 in late March. Other shipping companies followed suit [1] - The expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has turned into a complete blockade. After the US - Iran war, the expectation of resumption of navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal has completely disappeared [1] - After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, 10% of the world's container ships and more than 30% of oil transportation were受阻. Middle - East routes have come to a standstill, and shipping companies have suspended bookings for Middle - East routes. Large container ships originally operating in the Middle - East have been forced to divert to the Cape of Good Hope, further compressing the effective capacity of the European route [1] - The increase in crude oil prices and the detour via the Cape of Good Hope have increased shipping costs [1] - Currently, it is the off - season for container shipping demand, with a loose supply - demand situation. However, the war may change the supply - demand structure to a tight one [1] - Comparing with the situation from November to December 2023 when Houthi rebels attacked ships in the Red Sea, the current double - blockade of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz may have a greater impact, a faster price increase, and a more difficult resumption of navigation [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the upward trend, take bullish operations and set stop - losses. The risk point is the easing of the Iranian situation and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [2]