贵金属数据日报-20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the market trading narrative shifts from geopolitical risks to inflation risks and economic recession concerns. Due to high uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited, and they are expected to maintain high volatility. Long - term, the underlying logic for the precious metal bull market is solid. With the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Price Data - On March 3, 2026, London gold spot was at $5306.69/oz, London silver spot was at $85.08/oz, COMEX gold was at $5319.80/oz, and COMEX silver was at $85.12/oz. Compared with March 2, they decreased by 1.5%, 10.4%, 1.5%, and 10.7% respectively. AU2604 was at 1182 yuan/g, and AG2604 was at 21645 yuan/kg, with decreases of 1.3% and 11.4% respectively [3] - The price difference and ratio data also showed significant changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 3.42 yuan/g on March 2 to - 2.2 yuan/g on March 3, a decrease of 35.7% [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of March 2, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1101.33 tons (unchanged from February 27), and the silver ETF - SLV was 15902.23557 tons, a decrease of 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also had different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 3, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105060 kg (unchanged from March 2), and SHFE silver inventory was 307484 kg, a decrease of 0.63%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased compared with previous periods [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On March 3, 2026, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 6.91, a decrease of 0.21% compared with March 2. The US dollar index was 98.55, an increase of 0.93% compared with February 27. The 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields also increased, and the VIX index and NYMEX crude oil price also had significant increases [3] 3.5 Market Review - On March 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.9% to 1182 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 7.23% to 21405 yuan/kg. In the European and American sessions, precious metal prices further declined. London spot silver once fell more than 10%, and London spot gold once fell more than 4% and broke through the $5100/oz mark. Shanghai gold and silver night sessions also dropped significantly [3] 3.6 Impact Analysis - As the impact of geopolitical conflicts weakens marginally and risk - aversion fades, the continuation of geopolitical conflicts and the fermentation of the Strait of Hormuz issue lead to a continuous sharp rise in energy prices, reigniting market inflation concerns and economic recession concerns, causing a global stock market slump and a liquidity risk, which also affects precious metals. Rising energy prices increase US inflation risks, weakening the Fed's interest rate - cut trading expectations this year. The Fed Chairman nominee's statement on slow - paced balance - sheet reduction boosts the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, suppressing precious metal prices. The reduction of the COMEX silver March short - squeeze risk and the greater impact of economic recession on industrial attributes lead to a larger decline in silver prices [4] 3.7 Future Market Analysis - The short - term market trading focus shifts from geopolitical risks to inflation and economic recession concerns. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited, and they will maintain high volatility. In the long run, the bull - market logic for precious metals remains strong. With possible Fed interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US debt promoting de - dollarization, the allocation demand for precious metals from global entities will continue, and long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [4]