黑色金属数据日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways, wait for basis to fall before entering cash-and-carry positions [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Gradually take profits on previous long positions, industrial clients hedge on rallies [3][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways, establish cash-and-carry positions on rallies [5][7] - Iron Ore: Enter short positions at resistance levels [6][7] 2. Core Views - The black sector is currently in a stage of weak supply and demand, with derivatives market fluctuations slightly leading the spot market. The overall inventory of steel products is neutral, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The inventory of building materials is at a historical low, while the inventory of plates and billets has returned to a historical high. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow, and the market lacks strong demand expectations and confidence. Unilateral or trend trading opportunities are not recommended for now, but cash-and-carry positions can be operated based on the basis [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising costs, but the fundamentals remain weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The upward space for prices is limited, and chasing long positions is not recommended [3] - The geopolitical situation continues to ferment, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke in the futures market, despite the first round of price cuts in the spot market. The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered faster than demand, and the downstream has the habit of reducing raw material inventory in March and April. Energy-related speculative short positions should be avoided, and long positions should be reduced in a timely manner. Industrial clients can establish cash-and-carry positions on the 05 contract [5] - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, causing market sentiment to resonate. There is a certain restocking expectation for iron ore, and it is not recommended to chase short positions at low levels. The impact of Australian hurricanes on prices is more likely to provide better selling points after a rebound. In the medium to long term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - The spot market of steel is slowly starting, with weak and stable prices and poor speculative demand. The overall inventory of steel products is neutral, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The inventory of building materials is at a historical low, while the inventory of plates and billets has returned to a historical high. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow, and the market lacks strong demand expectations and confidence. Unilateral or trend trading opportunities are not recommended for now, but cash-and-carry positions can be operated based on the basis [2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising costs, but the fundamentals remain weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The upward space for prices is limited, and chasing long positions is not recommended [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The geopolitical situation continues to ferment, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke in the futures market, despite the first round of price cuts in the spot market. The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered faster than demand, and the downstream has the habit of reducing raw material inventory in March and April. Energy-related speculative short positions should be avoided, and long positions should be reduced in a timely manner. Industrial clients can establish cash-and-carry positions on the 05 contract [5] Iron Ore - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, causing market sentiment to resonate. There is a certain restocking expectation for iron ore, and it is not recommended to chase short positions at low levels. The impact of Australian hurricanes on prices is more likely to provide better selling points after a rebound. In the medium to long term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices [6]