集运指数（欧线）：择机减仓正套

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) hit the daily limit for the second day. During the period of price increase implementation vacuum, risk - aversion sentiment led to a short - selling stampede [12]. - The impact of geopolitical events on the container shipping European line spot market can be divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The emotional aspect sees a high enthusiasm among liner companies for price increases in most routes in the short term. The supply - demand impact is mainly on the capacity side, with a long transmission path. The intensity of this geopolitical event is higher than last year, and the duration of the conflict and the capacity adjustment behavior of liner companies need to be observed [12]. - In terms of the European line's own supply - demand situation, the demand side is in the regular off - season after the Spring Festival in March and April. The supply side shows that the European line schedules in March and April have not been affected by the geopolitical situation for the time being, with an obvious increase in capacity in the second half of March and a continuous increase in April. The freight rate side shows that the mainstream shipping companies' European line freight rates fluctuated in the second week of March, and the market is currently in a game over the actual implementation of the price increase in late March [12][13]. - Overall, the price increase and geopolitical sentiment have been partially priced in. The near - month 04 contract has been valued to the freight rate center of the second week of March. All current contracts are valued higher than the same period in 2025, having priced in some geopolitical premiums. There are still many uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. In the short term, the upward risk lies in the commodity geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and the game of EC funds during the freight rate vacuum period in late March. The strategy is to reduce long - short spreads positions opportunistically. The market volatility remains high, and investors are advised to participate with caution [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,644.8, with a daily increase of 18.00%, yesterday's trading volume was 17,836, and yesterday's open interest was 44,074, with a decrease of 2,169. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.40, compared with 1.76 the day before [1]. - EC2606 B: Yesterday's closing price was 2,181.7, with a daily increase of 18.00%, yesterday's trading volume was 3,269, and yesterday's open interest was 20,446, with a decrease of 321. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.16, compared with 0.78 the day before [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,469.8, with a daily increase of 15.00%, yesterday's trading volume was 7,755, and yesterday's open interest was 12,564, with a decrease of 1,147. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.62, compared with 1.04 the day before [1]. Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: The European route index was 1,463.40, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; the US - West route index was 1,045.08, with a weekly decline of 6.0% [1]. - SCFI: The European route index was 1,420 $/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.3%; the US - West route index was 1,857 $/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 3.9% [1]. Carrier Freight Data - Multiple carriers' freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route are provided, such as Maersk with a 38 - day voyage, $1,870 for 40' GP and $1,175 for 20' GP; MSC with a 42 - day voyage, $2,640 for 40' GP and $1,580 for 20' GP, etc. [1] European Line Capacity Data - In March, the weekly average capacity was 288,000 TEU/week, with 258,000 TEU/week in the first half and 318,000 TEU/week in the second half, a monthly year - on - year growth rate of 6.9%. In April, the weekly average capacity was 326,000 TEU/week, with a monthly year - on - year growth rate of 4.1% [13]. Market Freight Rate Situation - In the second week of March, the mainstream shipping companies' European line freight rates fluctuated. MSC increased the price by $500 to $2,640/FEU; YML's FP2 and FE4 routes decreased the price by $200 to $1,800/FEU; COSCO slightly increased the price by $100 to $2,500/FEU, and the OA alliance's central price was $2,400/FEU; Maersk decreased the price by $100/FEU to $1,900/FEU. The latest weekly central price was about $2,280/FEU, a week - on - week increase of about $210/FEU, equivalent to about 1,650 points on the SCFIS index [13]. Policy Adjustment - Starting from the night trading session on March 4, 2026, the trading limits for non - futures company members, overseas special non - broker participants, and customers in the listed futures contracts of crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and the Container Shipping Index (European Line) have been adjusted. The maximum number of intraday opening positions for crude oil futures is 1,200 lots, for low - sulfur fuel oil futures is 6,000 lots, and for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is 50 lots. Hedging and market - making transactions are not subject to these limits [14].