2026年03月04日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯：申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retraced from their February 24 repair highs. The main short - term disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Although Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected, the short - term strengthening of the US dollar after the nomination announcement has dragged down platinum and palladium. In the long run, the judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying wave continues, and the geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support. In the industrial sector, platinum has a clear supply - demand gap, and palladium has a rigid supply and strong demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 570.30, 563.70, and 562.05 respectively, with price drops of - 52.55, - 52.25, and - 49.05 and percentage drops of - 8.44%, - 8.48%, and - 8.03%. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 433.90, 432.15, and 430.95 respectively, with price drops of - 28.50, - 24.15, and - 25.00 and percentage drops of - 6.16%, - 5.29%, and - 5.48% [1] - Positions and Volumes: The positions of platinum futures are all 12803, and the volumes are 17121, 498, and 199 respectively. The positions of palladium futures are all 4456, and the volumes are 4938, 74, and 45 respectively [1] - Spot Premiums: The spot premiums for platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610) are 0.6, 7.2, and 8.85 respectively, and for palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610) are 5.1, 6.85, and 8.05 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: For platinum spot, the Shanghai platinum price dropped from 570.90 to 535.45, a decrease of - 35.45 with a percentage drop of - 0.058%. The London platinum price dropped from 2114.00 to 1899.00, a decrease of - 215.00 with a percentage drop of - 0.092%. For palladium spot, the Chinese palladium price dropped from 439.00 to 433.00, a decrease of - 6.00 with a percentage drop of - 0.013% [1] - Price Ratios: The current platinum - to - palladium ratio is 1.30 (previously 5.91), the Shanghai platinum - to - London platinum ratio is 1.17 (previously 0.71) [1] 3.3 Inventory - Platinum: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 587,158.53 ounces, a decrease of - 907.4 ounces compared to the previous value. The gold exchange turnover is 3,645.36 million yuan, a decrease of - 1630.5 million yuan, and the trading volume is 62.00 kilograms, a decrease of - 24.0 kilograms [1] - Palladium: The NYMEX palladium inventory remains unchanged at 202,180.58 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts also remain unchanged at 164,229.68 ounces [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indicators - Related Indicators: The current US dollar index is 99.06, an increase of 0.51 compared to the previous value. The S&P 500 index is 6,816.63, a decrease of - 64.99. The US Treasury yield is 4.06, an increase of 0.01 [1] - Related Derivatives: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1182.00, 1185.38, and 1187.78 respectively, with decreases of - 15.22, - 15.22, and - 16.02. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 21645.00, 21415.00, and 21377.00 respectively, with decreases of - 2786, - 2646, and - 2607 [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical Events: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Personnel Changes: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. The Fed has kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% [2] - Chinese Central Bank Policy: The People's Bank of China has held a payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system [3]