通胀预期上升，市场避险情绪上升：股指早报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Tensions in the Middle East have increased inflation expectations, dampened economic growth prospects, and raised recession expectations. This has a negative impact on global financial markets, including A - shares. Although A - shares have heavy - weight stocks to support the market, the decline of technology stocks has made it difficult for the market to break through the 4200 - point mark. The market is currently in a high - volatility state, and the direction will be determined after the high - volatility period. During the Two Sessions window period, there will be market stability measures. Attention should be paid to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the hard - technology stocks that have been wrongly sold off [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - Trump announced cutting off trade with Spain due to its lack of cooperation in actions against Iran, and plans to gradually announce tariffs on different countries and increase tariff agreements with some countries [4]. - In the Iran situation, Iran claims to have destroyed two sets of US THAAD systems; South Korea's media reports that the US is considering transferring THAAD and Patriot systems from South Korea to the Middle East; Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering joining the fight against Iran; Trump says it's too late for Iran to negotiate; Israel has officially mobilized troops for a ground invasion of Lebanon; the US Senate will vote on a "war powers resolution" to limit Trump's power on Iran; Iran's ambassador to the UN says Iran has not contacted the US for possible peace talks; and Iran's opposition news website reports that Khamenei's son has been selected as the next supreme leader [4]. - Regarding the Fed, some officials are uncertain about interest - rate cuts in 2026 due to the war situation, and they need to consider the spill - over effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trade partners, and continue to suppress inflation [4]. - In the energy situation, Trump announced providing insurance for海上原油运输 and naval escort through the Strait of Hormuz; a fire broke out at the UAE's major oil trading hub Fujairah due to drone debris; Iraq will be forced to cut oil production by more than 3 million barrels per day; Saudi Aramco is exploring oil exports via the Red Sea; and Trump says he can tolerate short - term oil price increases and prioritizes eliminating the Iranian threat [5]. - Wang Yi had a phone call with the Israeli Foreign Minister [6]. - The central bank had a net investment of 5 billion yuan in the open - market Treasury bond trading in February [7]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the price limit range and trading margin ratio of crude oil and other futures contracts [8]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [9]. - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to March 11th [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Futures Price Performance: All major stock - index futures contracts showed declines. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures IF2603 fell 1.27%, and the CSI 500 Index futures IC2603 fell 4.18% [11]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of various futures contracts generally increased, while the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 futures increased by 37,821 lots, and the open interest decreased by 12,664 lots [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Overall Market Performance: The A - share market generally declined on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. Only sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, transportation, banks, and public utilities rose, while the rest declined. There were 642 rising stocks and 4802 falling stocks in the whole market [2][35]. - Market Style Impact: Different market styles have different impacts on major stock indexes. For example, in the Shanghai 50 Index, the cyclical style has a relatively large negative impact on the daily decline, while the financial style has a positive impact [36]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open - market operations showed a net investment of 5 billion yuan in February. The Shibor interest - rate levels are also presented in the report, which helps to understand the short - term liquidity situation in the market [7][48].