光大期货能化商品日报（2026年3月4日）-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted trade flows, forcing Iraq to cut oil production. The situation is evolving uncontrollably, and the supply - demand balance of crude oil has been disrupted, increasing the risk premium of SC oil [1]. - For fuel oil, due to high transportation costs, the supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases and greater market volatility [3]. - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of terminal projects after the holiday. Geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rise in BU prices and greater market volatility [4]. - For the polyester sector, due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic plants have reduced production preventively. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and the polyester sector is expected to follow the price increase [4]. - In the rubber market, global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in January 2026. The domestic rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season, and the probability of a smooth start of tapping in March is high. With the support of export orders, the opening rate is expected to recover, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - In the methanol market, the arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support prices. However, the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause significant price fluctuations [5]. - For polyolefins, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, and the fundamental pressure is not large. Geopolitical risks will push up crude oil prices, and polyolefins will follow the price increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [7]. - In the PVC market, supply remains high in March, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. Although there are positive expectations for exports, prices have low elasticity due to factors such as abundant supply and limited demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, due to the conflict, WTI April contract rose $3.33 to $74.56 per barrel, a 4.67% increase; Brent May contract rose $3.66 to $81.4 per barrel, a 4.71% increase. The domestic SC2604 contract rose 78.7 yuan to 641.1 yuan per barrel, a 13.99% increase. Iraq has cut its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, and may increase the cut to over 3 million barrels per day if the situation worsens. The idle capacity of Middle - East land pipelines cannot effectively compensate for the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 12% to 3473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 11.98% to 4112 yuan per ton. Supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from Northwest Europe will decrease in March, while high - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases and greater market volatility [3]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 rose 4.69% to 3639 yuan per ton. The asphalt market shows weak supply and demand in the short term. Geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rise in prices and greater market volatility [4]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5608 yuan per ton, up 1.01%; EG2605 closed at 4025 yuan per ton, up 2.55%. Due to concerns about raw material supply, some domestic plants have reduced production preventively. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and the polyester sector is expected to follow the price increase [4]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 410 yuan to 16835 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 370 yuan to 13500 yuan per ton. Global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in January 2026. The domestic rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2505 yuan per ton. The arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support prices. However, the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause significant price fluctuations [5]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7100 - 7200 yuan per ton. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, and geopolitical risks will push up crude oil prices, and polyolefins will follow the price increase [7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high in March, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. Although there are positive expectations for exports, prices have low elasticity [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 4, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Two Iraqi oil officials said that due to the Iranian crisis, Iraq has cut its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, and may increase the cut to over 3 million barrels per day if oil tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz [10]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows that last week, US crude oil and distillate inventories increased, while gasoline inventories decreased. As of the week ending February 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 516,000 barrels [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The document provides line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][15][17][18][20][21][22][24] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The document provides line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [26][27][30] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The document provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [33][35][39][41][43][45] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The document provides line charts of the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and international markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [48][50][51][53] - 4.5 Production Profits: The document provides line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [55][57]