煤焦：供强需弱价格反弹空间受限

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in the energy and chemical sector has a certain driving effect on the coking coal market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply is in the recovery period, while the downstream has the expectation of phased emission reduction control. Overall, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the rebound space of coking coal and coke prices is limited [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rebounded with fluctuations, closing with a gain of over 3%, and the night - session price slightly corrected. Recently, affected by the escalation of the Middle - East situation, the prices of energy and chemical commodities have risen significantly, which has driven the sentiment in the coal market and led to an abnormal increase in coking coal prices. The spot price in the production area is temporarily stable, and the price of port resources fluctuates slightly [2] Supply - Last week, coal mines entered the peak period of resumption of production, and most private coal mines began to resume production. Data shows that the daily production of raw coal and clean coal last week was 1.516 million tons and 649,000 tons respectively, an increase of 430,000 tons and 190,000 tons compared with the previous week. At the import end, after the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal has returned to a relatively high level. The average daily customs clearance volume last week was about 176,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a high level, suppressing the futures price [3] Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel - mill blast furnaces was about 2.33 million tons. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory. The coke transportation of some coking enterprises was restricted, and the inventory in the factory was accumulated. Affected by the environmental protection and production - restriction policy this week, it is expected that the rhythm of hot metal production increase may slow down [3] Policy Impact - This week, the national important meeting will be held. On the one hand, pay attention to the changes in macro - policy expectations; on the other hand, some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction control from March 4th to March 11th. At that time, the blast furnace load will be independently reduced by no less than 30%, and the short - term emission reduction measures will put some pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials [2]