2026年03月04日：期货市场交易指引-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5][6] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; short May and long September for glass [1][8][10][11] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98000 - 106000; strengthen observation for aluminum; moderately hold long positions on nickel on dips; range trading for tin; bullish - biased range for gold and silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][14][16][18][20][21][23][24] - Energy and Chemicals: Bullish - biased range for PVC and caustic soda; short on soda ash on rallies; long on styrene and rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol; bullish - biased range for polyolefins [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][36] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Bullish - biased range for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; range - bound for red dates [1][37][39][42] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Be cautious about shorting the May contract of live hogs, and take a short - biased approach on rallies; short on near - month egg contracts on rallies if the culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short on soybean meal on rallies; bullish - biased range for oils, with a cautious approach on chasing long positions for soybean and palm oils [1][43][45][46][47][49] 2. Core Views - Market Influences: Geopolitical events such as the war between the US - Israel and Iran, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significant impacts on the market, increasing risk - aversion sentiment and affecting commodity prices. Policy factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, also play important roles in market trends [5][6][15][21][23] - Commodity - specific Views: Each commodity has its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market expectations, which determine their price trends and trading strategies. For example, some commodities are affected by production capacity changes, while others are influenced by seasonal demand or international trade policies [9][10][17][26] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to external market pressure and domestic two - sessions news, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: Expected to trade in a range. Policy signals are clear, and with geopolitical disturbances, they may be bullish - biased [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak. It is recommended for short - term trading [8][9] - Rebar: The price is trading in a range. The valuation is low, but the demand drive is weak. It is necessary to focus on the post - festival demand recovery [10] - Glass: The market is weak. There is a plan to short the May contract and long the September contract. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the market shows a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is in a high - level range. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation and weak demand, long - term demand support exists. It is recommended for short - term range trading with a focus on 98000 - 106000 [14][15] - Aluminum: The price is in a high - level range. Supply expectations are improving, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to strengthen observation [16][17] - Nickel: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia provides support, but demand recovery is slow [18][19] - Tin: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. It is recommended for range trading [20] - Silver and Gold: The prices are expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Geopolitical events increase risk - aversion sentiment, and the central price level is expected to rise. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [21][22][23] - Lithium Carbonate: The price is expected to be in a range. Supply disturbances exist, and demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and supply disruptions [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The price is in a low - level wide - range. Although the domestic demand is weak, there are short - term export supports. It is recommended for short - term bullish - biased trading within the rising channel [26] - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. There are support factors such as spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes [28] - Styrene: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Cost support is strong, but there is supply pressure in March. It is recommended to long on dips without chasing highs [29] - Polyolefins: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [31] - Rubber: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. There is cost support, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to long on dips without chasing highs [32] - Urea: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Supply and demand are both increasing, but the price may be under pressure in the middle and late March to April [33][34] - Methanol: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. The war in Iran may cause supply shortages, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes [35] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be under pressure [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Post - festival consumption expectations are rising, and external cotton prices are strong [37] - Apples: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable [41] - Red Dates: The price is expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price is based on quality [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Hogs: The price is in the process of bottom - building. It is necessary to be cautious about shorting the May contract and take a short - biased approach on rallies. Pay attention to secondary fattening, frozen product storage, and policy changes [43][44] - Eggs: If the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on near - month contracts on rallies. Pay attention to inventory digestion and demand recovery [45] - Corn: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [46] - Soybean Meal: It is recommended to short on rallies. The overall supply - demand is loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to soybean arrivals and auctions [47] - Oils: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Driven by international crude oil, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions for soybean and palm oils [49][54]