地缘局势不明朗，A股补跌

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical situation remains unclear, and the A-share market is experiencing a catch - up decline. In a market of heavy - volume decline, investors should not rush to buy the dip. They need to closely monitor the latest developments in geopolitical conflicts and the dynamics of the Two Sessions, and pay attention to whether policy favorable signals will be released during the Two Sessions [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Macro - situation: The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to March 11th, 2026, with a 7 - day session. The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on March 5th. Overseas, US President Trump made tough statements on multiple issues during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz, including the Iran situation, relations with European allies, and oil price trends. He also announced measures such as cutting off trade with Spain and providing insurance for oil transportation [1] - Index adjustment: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43% to close at 4122.68 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. Most sector indices declined, with oil and petrochemicals, coal, transportation, and banking leading the gains, while national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and media sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained above 3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 1.02% to 22516.69 points [1] - Futures index position reduction: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation and the catch - up decline of the A - share market, investors should not be eager to bottom - fish and should focus on geopolitical conflicts and the Two Sessions [2] Chart Summary Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Domestic major stock index daily performance: On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43% to 4122.68, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07% to 14022.39, the ChiNext Index fell 2.57% to 3209.48, the CSI 300 Index fell 1.54% to 4655.90, the SSE 50 Index fell 1.06% to 3014.27, the CSI 500 Index fell 4.35% to 8281.61, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.95% to 8142.45 [12] Futures Index Tracking Charts - Stock index futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volume and open interest of IF futures were 166,629 and 287,927 respectively, with changes of + 37,821 and + 384; for IH futures, they were 78,973 and 114,542 respectively, with changes of + 17,839 and + 1,678; for IC futures, they were 261,332 and 332,226 respectively, with changes of + 82,526 and + 20,657; for IM futures, they were 293,689 and 401,907 respectively, with changes of + 67,713 and + 18,912 [12][14] - Stock index futures basis: For IF futures, the basis of the current - month contract was - 4.50 with a change of + 12.97; for IH futures, it was 4.73 with a change of + 5.40; for IC futures, it was - 15.41 with a change of + 15.92; for IM futures, it was - 13.05 with a change of + 40.11 [31] - Stock index futures inter - period spreads: The inter - period spreads and their changes of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided in the report, including spreads between different months such as the next - month minus the current - month, the next - quarter minus the current - month, etc. [38][39]