中辉有色观点-20260304

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish (hold long positions) [1] - Silver: Neutral (wait - and - see) [1] - Copper: Bullish (hold long positions) [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish (rebound under pressure) [1] - Lead: Bearish (rebound under pressure) [1] - Tin: Bearish (under pressure) [1] - Aluminum: Bullish (relatively strong) [1] - Nickel: Bearish (rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bearish (low - level operation) [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish (low - level oscillation) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bearish (correction) [1] Core Views - The Iran situation is uncertain, which may lead to inflation, reverse interest - rate cut expectations, and cause a liquidity crisis, affecting all assets including precious metals. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and short - term attention should be paid to structural entry opportunities. Silver has high demand in emerging fields, but short - term participation is difficult. Copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term after a short - term correction. Zinc and lead have supply - demand imbalances and short - term rebound pressure. Aluminum is relatively strong in the short - term. Nickel has short - term rebound pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a low - level state. Lithium carbonate is in a correction phase [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: On March 3, spot gold and silver prices continued to decline. Gold and silver recovered some losses after Trump's statement. The prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver decreased, and the gold - silver ratio increased. The dollar index rose, and gold and silver ETFs and net long positions decreased [2]. - Basic Logic: The Iran situation may change the Fed's attitude. If the war drags on, it will consume the US fiscal resources and may lead to a restart of religious terrorism. In case of a global stock market crash and liquidity crisis, precious metals may be sold off. The Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts is affected by inflation and the Middle - East war [3]. - Strategy: Gold has a long - term upward trend, with support around 1120. Silver should pay attention to the support around 21000 [4]. Copper - Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper decreased. The trading volume and inventory of Shanghai copper changed. The spread and import profit and loss also had corresponding changes [5]. - Industry Logic: The global copper mine supply is tight, and major copper - mining companies have lowered their production expectations. The flood in the Congo cut off the main copper export channel. The short - term impact of the Iran war on copper production is limited. The production of electrolytic copper in China is expected to increase in March. The copper inventory has increased, but the effective circulating inventory is expected to be tight [6]. - Strategy: Copper may test the 100,000 - yuan mark in the short - term. It is recommended to wait for the correction to stabilize. Long - term trends are still optimistic. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [99,500, 104,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,800, 13,400] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc decreased. The trading volume and inventory of Shanghai zinc changed, and the spread and import profit and loss also had corresponding changes [8]. - Industry Logic: The global zinc - mine supply may shrink in 2026. The Iranian zinc mine may not be put into production due to geopolitical factors. The domestic zinc - concentrate processing fee is stable, and overseas zinc - smelting plants have low operating rates. The supply of zinc ingots decreased in February, and the demand was weak during the Spring Festival, resulting in inventory accumulation [9]. - Strategy: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on zinc, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery, and wait for more macro - level guidance. In the long - term, it is advisable to try long positions on dips. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [24,000, 25,000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3,250, 3,350] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebounded significantly, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The prices, trading volume, and inventory of aluminum and alumina in the futures and spot markets changed [11]. - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The new electrolytic - aluminum projects at home and abroad are expected to increase production steadily. The inventory of electrolytic - aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, which suppresses prices in the short - term. The downstream processing enterprises are resuming production. The overseas bauxite supply is sufficient, and the domestic alumina inventory has decreased slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum - ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23,000 - 25,500] [14]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices faced pressure in the rebound, while stainless - steel prices rebounded. The prices, trading volume, and inventory of nickel and stainless - steel in the futures and spot markets changed [15]. - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Indonesia will reduce the nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The landslide in the Indonesian IMIP industrial park increased supply concerns. The domestic pure - nickel social inventory is high, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly due to the Spring Festival and other factors, suppressing prices [17]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless - steel on dips, paying attention to Indonesian policies and the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [130,000 - 150,000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 hit the daily limit down, with a significant reduction in positions [20]. - Industry Logic: The total lithium - carbonate inventory is likely to continue to decline in March. The demand for replenishment and stocking has increased after the price increase. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen due to the overseas supply shock, and lithium carbonate may maintain a high - level and strong oscillation [21]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously. The trading range is [138,000 - 150,000] [22].