有色商品日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices at home and abroad oscillated and declined. Macroeconomic risks and fundamental pressures coexist. There is a risk of a second correction in copper prices, but when the financial market has priced in risks and the inventory accumulation ends, the market may enter a stage of rising risk preference. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended stronger. The reduction in production by large - scale alumina plants in the north and the seasonal consumption of raw material inventories by electrolytic aluminum plants have led to a slight reduction in alumina inventory, and spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded. However, the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some maintenance capacities after the holiday will still suppress the upside. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly, and the alumina price will run weakly and stably. The conflict between the United States and Iran has led to concerns about supply in the Middle East, and it is expected that aluminum ingots will continue to accumulate inventory, with the peak likely to occur in mid - to - late March [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The cost is the core support, and there are still opportunities to go long lightly near the cost line. Attention should be paid to the inventory of primary nickel. If the subsequent explicit inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price. Overseas macro risks need to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macroeconomic factors such as the expansion of the US - Iran conflict and the rebound of the US dollar have put pressure on copper prices. LME inventory remained unchanged at 257,675 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 4,624 tons to 300,505 tons. The short - term outlook is bearish, but there are potential opportunities in the long - term [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a strong trend. The reduction in production by large - scale alumina plants and the consumption of raw material inventories by electrolytic aluminum plants led to a slight reduction in inventory. However, factors such as the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some maintenance capacities will suppress the upside [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. LME inventory decreased by 378 tons to 287,976 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons to 53,649 tons. The cost support is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 510 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,624 tons, and social inventory increased by 23,000 tons [1][4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 41 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased by 340 yuan/ton and 310 yuan/ton respectively. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 21,365 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 72,000 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,600 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons, and social inventory increased by 2,036 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 0.1%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 31,500 tons [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 5.7%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 12,253 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][11][12][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][16][17][18][19][21][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][24][25][26][27][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][30][31][32][33][34]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: He is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many awards [49]. - Wang Heng: He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant awards and provides in - depth research and services [49]. - Zhu Xi: She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She has won relevant awards and provides professional services to new energy enterprises [50].