原油：多单酌情持有，继续关注上行风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil as appropriate and continuing to monitor upside risks [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of major crude oil futures contracts have increased, and the market situation and arbitrage opportunities in different regions have changed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.33 per barrel, a 4.67% increase, to $74.56 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $3.66 per barrel, a 4.71% increase, to $81.40 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures rose 78.70 yuan per barrel, a 13.99% increase, to 641.10 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of most crude oils are closed, with significant changes in spreads compared to January. The main factors include price disadvantages, negative refining values, and high freight costs. However, Vasconia, Castilla, Napo, and Maya have positive spreads due to significant price discounts [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread turned from negative to positive, with a significant increase. Arab Extra Light's spread remained basically flat. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, and Urals' spread increased with a large arbitrage space [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of WTI MEH and Eagle Ford narrowed, with WTI MEH approaching the break - even point and Eagle Ford turning negative. Azeri Light's spread remained basically flat, Saharan Blend's spread increased, and Bonny Light's spread turned negative [7] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all decreased, mainly due to the expanding price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals [8] China Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Duri and Mars turned from negative to positive, with significant increases. Napo's spread narrowed but remained high. The spreads of Basrah Heavy and Maya decreased [9] Key Market News - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 was 564.7 million barrels, higher than expected. There are political events in Iran, including the possible selection of a new leader and the CIA's plan to support the Kurdish armed forces. The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" regarding Iran. Iraq may be forced to cut production by over 3 million barrels per day, and it has already cut production at the West Qurna 2 oil field by 450,000 barrels per day. There are also reports of a possible Saudi attack on Iran [10][11][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook [12]