黄金白银：2026年3月4日申万期货品种策略日报-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Night trading of precious metals continued to decline. Geopolitical risks have risen sharply, increasing the demand for gold as a traditional safe - haven asset. However, due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and profit - taking by funds, precious metals have corrected. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. If the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may lead to a significant increase in oil prices, raising inflation expectations for resource products and potentially exacerbating the "stagflation" risk in the US, which strengthens the anti - inflation property of gold. Also, although the US dollar index has strengthened in the short - term due to increased global uncertainty, market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are intensifying. With the reconstruction of the global political and economic order and the diversification of central bank reserve assets, the de - dollarization process is advancing. Therefore, considering multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation demand, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium, belonging to the precious metals sector, will also benefit from increased risk - aversion sentiment and strengthened inflation expectations, and will follow the overall sector's upward trend with relatively larger fluctuations compared to gold [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金 2606 and 沪金 2604): The closing prices yesterday were 1185.38 and 1182.000 respectively, down - 1.27% from the previous day; the trading volume was 108780 and 392779 respectively; the open interest was 103769 and 139770 respectively [2]. - For silver futures (沪银 2606 and 沪银 2604): The closing prices yesterday were 21415 and 21645 respectively, down - 11.00% and - 11.40% from the previous day; the trading volume was 598151 and 713888 respectively; the open interest was 169820 and 161166 respectively [2]. Spot Market - For gold spot: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D yesterday was 1181.56, down - 1.50% from the previous day; the price of London gold was 5088.52 dollars per troy ounce, down - 4.38% from the previous day [2]. - For silver spot: The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D yesterday was 21427, down - 10.54% from the previous day; the price of London silver was 82.01 dollars per troy ounce, down - 8.12% from the previous day [2]. Inventory - Gold inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (in kilograms, daily) remained unchanged at 105,060; silver inventory decreased by 1952 kilograms to 307,484 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 99538 troy ounces to 33,071,598 troy ounces; COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2391537 troy ounces to 355,173,837 troy ounces [2]. Relevant Derivatives - The US dollar index rose 0.72 to 99.27; the S&P 500 index fell 64.99 to 6,816.63; the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 0.01% to 4.06%; Brent crude oil rose 3.92 to 81.99; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose 0.0142 to 6.8997. The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 2.28 tons to 1,099 tons; the position of SLV Silver ETF increased by 79 tons to 15,981 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 738 to 159,177; the net position in silver decreased by 1743 to 22,260 [2]. Macroeconomic News - According to the New York Times, Mojtaba, the son of Khamenei, has become the leading candidate for Iran's supreme leader, but some have reservations [3]. - The deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said the Strait of Hormuz is under full control, and more than a dozen oil tankers were hit by shells [3]. - US President Trump announced that the US will provide political risk insurance and financial security for maritime trade in the Gulf, and the US Navy will escort oil tankers if necessary. Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropped more than 2.5 dollars [3]. - Trump said he can tolerate a short - term rise in oil prices to eliminate the threat from Iran, and the war actions against Iran have been successful [3]. - Trump criticized Spain for its lack of cooperation in the attack on Iran and announced the cut - off of all trade with Spain [3]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rates due to the Iran issue. Kashkari is uncertain about the rate cut in 2026; Williams believes the Fed should consider spillover effects; Schmid focuses on curbing inflation [3].