美元指数?强，铂钯承压回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On March 3, 2026, the platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped, with the platinum main - contract falling 8.44% to 570.30 yuan/gram and the palladium main - contract falling 6.16% to 433.90 yuan/gram [1] - For platinum, due to the strengthening of the US dollar index, the price has declined. The short - term safe - haven sentiment's boost to precious metals is weakening, and the market is trading on the postponed interest - rate cut expectation. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the release of platinum price elasticity. The expected trend is oscillating upward [2] - For palladium, the market sentiment has weakened, and the price has followed the decline of platinum. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side faces structural pressure. The long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term supply disturbances still exist. The expected trend is also oscillating upward [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: The situation in the Middle East (US - Iran) is disturbing the precious metals market. The tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased global energy transportation costs and oil prices. If the strait is blocked for a long time, it may lead to global inflation, postponed Fed rate cuts, and increased economic recession risks. The short - term safe - haven sentiment's boost to precious metals is weakening, and the market is trading on the postponed interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and platinum prices to decline. In the long - term, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will lead to the long - term weakening of the US dollar index, which is beneficial for platinum prices. However, the duration and intensity of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict also have an impact on the US dollar and platinum prices [2] - Outlook: The fundamentals are resilient, and the US dollar credit is weakening. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate upward [2] Palladium - Main Logic: The supply side of palladium has continuous uncertainties. The US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering a new round of sanctions on Russian palladium. The supply disturbances continue, and the spot shortage supports the price. The demand side still faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, and short - term supply disturbances still exist, but it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - Outlook: The spot is in short supply, and the US dollar credit is weakening. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate upward [3] Commodity Index - Composite Index: No specific data provided - Specialty Index: The commodity index is 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index is 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index is 2364.70, up 1.43% [49] Plate Index - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 3, 2026, the index was 2717.21, with a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decline of 3.99%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.16% [51]