31省预算观察：定量老线索，定性新变化

Group 1: Quantitative Observations - Public fiscal revenue growth is expected to rise for two consecutive years for the first time since 2009-2011, with a target growth rate of 2.7% for 2026, compared to 2.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2024[1] - Land sales revenue faces significant recovery pressure, with a target growth rate of -1.2% for 2026, down from -8.2% in 2025 and a target of 0.1%[1] - The investment growth target for major projects in the three regions is set to decline, with the six major provinces at -0.7% for 2026, down from 3% in 2025[2] Group 2: Qualitative Insights - "Standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies" is a common new point, indicating a potential rise in actual tax rates[2] - "Investing in people" is a common focus, suggesting an increase in the proportion of fiscal spending on livelihood-related expenditures, while infrastructure spending remains under pressure[2] - "Debt clearance" special bonds will continue to be issued, with potentially higher volumes and an accelerated pace, as some provinces describe the situation as "challenging" and "with significant funding needs"[2]