能源价格推升通胀预期，贵金属继续承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, with the continuous spread of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to a rise in energy prices and reignited market inflation concerns [1] - Traders' bets on the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year have dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for interest rate cuts, which has a significant suppressing effect on precious metal prices [1] - Due to the current market conditions, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near future [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, with Iran and Israel engaging in continuous attacks and counterattacks. The new round of stock selling wave driven by Trump's stance has led to a continuous rise in energy prices and reignited market inflation concerns [1] - Traders' bets on the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year have dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for interest rate cuts, which has a significant suppressing effect on precious metal prices [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,199.52 yuan/gram and closed at 1,182.00 yuan/gram, a change of -1.27% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,163.20 yuan/gram and closed at 1,144.98 yuan/gram, a 3.13% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 24,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,645.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -11.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 713,888 lots, and the open interest was 161,172 lots. In the night session, it opened at 21,300 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,521 yuan/kilogram, a 0.57% decline from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 3, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.059%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.557%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 9,573 lots compared to the previous day, while the number of short positions decreased by 741 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 544,885 lots, a change of 24.12% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 4,558 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 5,767 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,910,286 lots, a change of 43.74% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,101.33 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,902 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 18.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 1,826.31 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 54.61, a change of 11.44% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.97, a change of -3.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 3, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 81,118 kilograms, a change of 33.10% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 504,106 kilograms, a change of -38.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract's volatility range likely to be between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract's volatility range likely to be between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9]