2月PMI数据点评：春节扰动下景气走弱，结构分化延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, affected by the Spring Festival and other seasonal factors, the overall business climate in China weakened, and the structural differentiation continued. The manufacturing, service, and construction industries all faced different degrees of challenges, with the manufacturing and service industry business climate in the contraction range, and the construction industry continuing to contract, but showing marginal improvement in demand, employment, and expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Manufacturing Industry - Overall business climate: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range for two consecutive months, and the recovery momentum slowed down again [1] - Demand side: The new order index was 48.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range for two consecutive months. The new export order dropped significantly by 2.8 percentage points to 45.0%, and the external demand business climate was obviously insufficient. The difference between new orders and new export orders widened to 3.6 percentage points, indicating that external demand drag was more prominent. The backlog order index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 44.0%, further confirming the lack of demand [2] - Supply side: The production index in February decreased by 1 percentage point to 49.6%, falling into the contraction range after three consecutive months of expansion, indicating a slowdown in production activities. The finished - goods inventory index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 45.8%, and the enterprise's willingness to replenish inventory weakened. The supplier delivery time decreased by 1 percentage point to 49.1%, falling into the contraction range for the first time after 12 consecutive months of expansion, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers slowed down. The employment index decreased slightly to 48.0%, and the enterprise's employment business climate continued to weaken. In February, the decline in finished - goods inventory was mainly due to active destocking, supplemented by passive destocking [2] - Price aspect: The raw material purchase price index dropped 1.3 percentage points from a high level to 54.8% but remained in the expansion range. The ex - factory price index was 50.6%, the same as the previous month, and remained above the boom - bust line. The scissors gap between purchase price and ex - factory price narrowed, indicating that cost transmission to the downstream improved, and the enterprise's profit pressure was marginally relieved. However, in the context of weak demand, the enterprise's purchase intention was still insufficient, and the purchase volume index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 48.2%, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months [3] - Enterprise and industry differentiation: At the enterprise level, large enterprises were strong while small and medium - sized enterprises were weak. The business climate index of large enterprises rose 1.2 percentage points to 51.5%, remaining in the expansion range for three consecutive months. The business climate index of medium - sized and small enterprises decreased by 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points to 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, and continued to be in the contraction range. At the industry level, the high - tech manufacturing industry continued to be in the expansion range but the growth momentum slowed down; the business climate of the equipment manufacturing industry declined slightly and fell below the boom - bust line; the basic raw material industry and the consumer goods industry continued to be in the contraction range [3][4] Service Industry - Overall business climate: The service industry business climate index in February was 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but it had fallen into the contraction range for four consecutive months [5] - Demand and employment: The new order index decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 45.7%, and the employment index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 46.6%. The business activity expectation index decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 55.8%, indicating a decline in enterprise confidence [5] - Price aspect: The input price index rose 1.5 percentage points to 51.2%, and the sales price index rose slightly to 49.0%. The cost - side pressure increased while the terminal price - raising ability was still weak, and the profit was under pressure [5] - Industry differentiation: The slight rebound of the service industry business climate in February was mainly due to industries benefiting from the Spring Festival consumption effect, such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment, whose business climate was above 60%. The business activity indexes of capital market services, real estate, etc., were all below the critical point [5] Construction Industry - Overall business climate: The construction industry index in February decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, falling into the contraction range for two consecutive months, and the overall industry business climate was still weak [6] - Demand, employment, and expectation: The new order index rose 2.1 percentage points to 42.4%; the employment index rose 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%; the business activity expectation index rose 1.1 percentage points to 50.9%. Although demand and employment were in the contraction range, the obvious upward trend and improved expectations reflected that the resumption of work and production after the festival would be gradually launched [6] - Price aspect: The input price index decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 49.1%; the sales price index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.6%. The cost pressure was relieved, but the terminal price was still weak. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the construction activities and project demands of construction enterprises showed off - season characteristics. After the festival, with the promotion of resumption of work and production and the successive start of key investment projects, the business climate of the construction industry would gradually recover [6]