月初资金面依旧宽松，债市整体偏强，长债小幅走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 3, the capital market at the beginning of the month remained loose, the bond market was generally strong but long - term bonds weakened slightly, convertible bond market indices fell collectively, and most convertible bond issues declined. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose, and 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies also generally increased [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held on March 3. The spokesperson Liu Jieyi answered questions on China's economic situation, development prospects, opening - up, and the integration and development of the Greater Bay Area, stating that China's economy has strong resilience and long - term positive fundamentals [3] - The central bank released the operation of the financial market in January 2026 on March 3. In January 2026, net financing of government bonds was 976.39 billion yuan, an increase of 283.13 billion yuan year - on - year; net financing of corporate bonds was 503.26 billion yuan, an increase of 57.9 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of January 2026, the bond market custody balance was 197.7 trillion yuan. In the money market, the average daily turnover of inter - bank lending was 493.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 84.4%; the average daily turnover of bond repurchase in the inter - bank market was 8.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 47.7%. At the end of January 2026, the outstanding balance of inter - bank lending was 0.8 trillion yuan, and the outstanding balance of bond repurchase in the inter - bank market was 12.0 trillion yuan [4] 3.1.2 International News - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC, said that if inflation cools, one or two interest rate cuts later this year might be appropriate, but the Middle East war could lead to a longer - term pause in action. He considered the current 3.5% - 3.75% interest rate range to be close to the "neutral level" [5] - New York Fed President Williams said that if inflation continues to decline after the impact of tariffs fades, the Fed will have reason to further cut interest rates. He expected that tariffs would put additional pressure on consumer prices in the first half of this year, and the inflation rate would drop to 2.5% by the end of 2026 and to 2% in 2027. He also expected the unemployment rate to decline slightly in the next two years and the economic growth rate to be about 2.5% this year [6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On March 3, WTI April crude oil futures rose 4.67% to $74.56 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of 14.34% since February 26; Brent May crude oil futures rose 4.71% to $81.40 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 3.98% to $5099.40 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1.98% to $3.039 per ounce [7] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On March 3, the central bank conducted 3.43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 52.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 49.17 billion yuan [9] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On March 3, despite the central bank's net withdrawal in the open market, the capital market at the beginning of the month remained loose, and major repurchase interest rates declined significantly. DR001 dropped 4.52bp to 1.3266%, and DR007 dropped 1.24bp to 1.452% [10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - Yield Trends of Spot Bonds: On March 3, affected by the stock market decline and loose capital market, the bond market was generally strong, but long - term bonds weakened slightly due to the lower - than - expected bond - buying scale of the central bank in February. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.45bp to 1.7935%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250220 rose 0.35bp to 1.9630% [13] - Bond Tendering Situation: Various bonds such as 26 Guokai 02, 25 Guokai 18 (Increment 28), etc., were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples [15] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Abnormal Secondary - Market Transactions: On March 3, the trading prices of 4 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Vanke 06" rose more than 11%, "H1 Vanke 04" rose more than 14%, "H0 Baolong 04" rose more than 66%, and "H1 Bidi 03" rose more than 100% [16] - Credit Bond Events: Companies such as Vanke, Agile Group, and Zhongnan Construction announced loan renewals, postponement of liquidation hearings, and meetings to discuss bond extensions [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On March 3, the A - share market fell with heavy trading volume, and the three major stock indices declined. The convertible bond market also followed the equity market down significantly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 1.81%, 1.71%, and 1.98% respectively. Most convertible bond issues declined [20] - Convertible Bond Tracking: On March 3, Wentai Convertible Bond and Hongtu Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed to lower the conversion price; Kehua Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for lowering the conversion price. Anji Convertible Bond and Hengyi Convertible Bond announced early redemptions; Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 and Liyang Convertible Bond announced that they were about to meet the early redemption conditions [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On March 3, yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 4bp to 3.51%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 1bp to 4.06%. The yield spread between the 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed 3bp to 55bp; the yield spread between the 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed 1bp to 107bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) remained unchanged at 2.29% [23][25][26] - European Bond Market: On March 3, 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally rose. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield rose 7bp to 2.78%, and those of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 8bp, 11bp, 6bp, and 8bp respectively [27] - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds: As of the close on March 3, some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds had price increases or decreases, with different daily and monthly changes [29]