伊朗危机引发通胀担忧，全球开启riskoff模式

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Iran crisis has triggered inflation concerns, and the global market has entered a risk-off mode. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short term, but the market may show a "sell the fact" performance. An escalation of the event will further increase the global inflation risk [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds. The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was lower than expected, and the January PPI continued to rise. China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that the stable growth policy may be advanced [2]. - There are opportunities for bargain hunting in the commodity market. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous metal sector remain unresolved, and precious metals have configuration value again. In the energy sector, attention should be paid to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation and the "sell the fact" risk. The OPEC+ will increase production from April. Some chemical products are relatively resistant to decline. The agricultural products need to pay attention to weather and pig diseases, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. - The strategy is to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran situation has escalated. The US and Israel carried out an air strike on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. Multiple energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas have been damaged, affecting the production and supply chain. The main affected varieties include crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and the shipping sector. The key factors are whether the conflict will turn into a ground war and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The eurozone's February inflation rebounded unexpectedly, with the core inflation and service inflation higher than the ECB's 2% policy target. The Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in European natural gas and crude oil prices, increasing the "endogenous + imported" inflation pressure [1]. Two Sessions Analysis - During the Two Sessions, the overall A - share index has a negative average increase or decrease, and the commodity sector is under obvious pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index strengthens again, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 leading in terms of gains and winning rates, while the commodity sector shows no obvious pattern [2]. Commodity Sector Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, with high certainty [3]. - Precious metals: After the adjustment, they have configuration value again [3]. - Energy: Pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. The OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, higher than the market expectation of 137,000 barrels per day, and the production increase plan will last until September. Be wary of the "sell the fact" risk, and the long - term increase in Venezuelan production still threatens oil prices [1][3]. - Chemicals: PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3]. - Agricultural products: Pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. - Black metals: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Important News - The advisor to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will attack all ships trying to pass through. Trump said he will not stop until the goal is achieved and may send ground troops to Iran if necessary [5]. - The US Federal Appellate Court rejected the Trump administration's request for a tariff refund extension, and a $175 billion refund battle has begun [5]. - The 2026 National Two Sessions will start on March 4. The press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 3 [5]. - The US February ISM manufacturing index has expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index has soared to a nearly four - year high. The Iran conflict may add inflation pressure [5]. - QatarEnergy will stop producing some downstream products in Qatar, including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum, etc. [5]. - The eurozone's February harmonized CPI preliminary value year - on - year is 1.9%, higher than the expected 1.7% [5].