2026年2月PMI数据点评：春节长假影响制造业PMI指数季节性下行，服务业景气度回升

Manufacturing Sector - In February 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI dropped by 1 percentage point to 49.6%, primarily due to the extended Spring Festival holiday[3] - New export orders index fell significantly to 45.0%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a sharper decline than the historical average of 0.4 percentage points during Spring Festival months[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January, with the services PMI at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI decreased to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points, marking the lowest level in nearly six years due to the holiday and ongoing real estate market adjustments[6] Economic Policies and Market Impact - Recent structural policies from the central bank and finance ministry aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises have had a positive impact on market confidence, contributing to a milder decline in the manufacturing PMI[4] - The prices of raw materials saw a decrease of 1.3 percentage points to 54.8%, while the factory price index remained stable at 50.6%, indicating ongoing industrial price pressures[4] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to rebound in March, with projections ranging between 49.8% and 50.2%, influenced by historical trends following the Spring Festival[6] - Key factors affecting future PMI trends include U.S. tariffs on global trade, the real estate market's performance, and the timing and intensity of growth-stabilizing policies[6]