2026年2月PMI数据点评：受季节性因素影响，制造业景气回落

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The production index decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 49.6%, primarily due to seasonal effects from the extended Spring Festival holiday[1] - New orders index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%, showing an accelerated contraction in demand[1] - New export orders declined by 2.8 percentage points to 45.0%, reflecting significant contraction due to seasonal factors[1] - Large enterprises saw a PMI increase of 1.2 percentage points to 51.5%, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs fell to 47.5% and 44.8%, respectively[1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, remaining below the neutral threshold[2] - The construction sector's business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2% due to holiday-related shutdowns[2] - The service sector's business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, driven by holiday consumption[2] - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.5%, influenced by the negative impact of seasonal factors on manufacturing[2] - Overall, the decline in manufacturing sentiment is attributed to seasonal factors, while the recovery in non-manufacturing is supported by increased consumer activity[2]