铁矿短期存反弹机会，中期维持逢高空思路

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term (half - month horizon), with the marginal release of high - valuation pressures and rising policy - speculation expectations ahead of key meetings, iron ore futures prices have the potential for a phased rebound, but it's difficult to break above the previous high of 830 RMB/t, and the upward resistance near the 20 - day moving average around 770 RMB/t should be focused on [1][4][37][43][63]. - In the medium term (two - month horizon), the logic will return to fundamentals, and the main market theme will shift from expectation - driven to reality verification. Selling on rallies is a more cost - effective strategy as the structural contradiction of high supply and high inventory is difficult to alleviate and may intensify, putting downward pressure on ore prices. To achieve de - stocking by forcing supply reductions, the iron ore price needs to drop below 90 USD/t [2][13][38][40][63][65]. - In the medium to long term (May to September), the market will enter a data verification period, focusing on supply - demand rebalancing, including overseas steel demand recovery, the effectiveness of the negative feedback mechanism, and the actual pace of new overseas capacity commissioning. If prices drop to absolute lows in the first half of the year, far - month contracts offer good value for buying on dips [3][5][39][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Easing Valuation Pressures May Prompt A Pre - Meeting Tactical Rebound - Although fundamentals are weakening, iron ore prices have corrected by about 9% from their peak this year, releasing high - valuation risks. Global shipments have declined month - on - month, and early selling pressure has largely materialized, weakening short - term downward momentum [11]. - With major meetings in early March, there is room for policy - driven market speculation. Given the partial release of valuation risks, ongoing hot metal output recovery, and weather disruptions, iron ore futures are likely to have a tactical rebound, but breaking above the previous high will be challenging [12]. 3.2 Returning to Fundamentals: Medium - Term Sell - on - Rally Strategy Unchanged 3.2.1 Supply: Elevated Non - Mainstream Shipments to Sustain High Supply Pressure - Fewer weather disruptions in Australia, incremental volumes from the Onslow project, and sustained production from non - mainstream miners have pushed the year - on - year growth of cumulative iron ore shipments to a multi - year high. As of February 20, global cumulative iron ore shipments increased by 29.66 Mt YoY, with non - mainstream miners contributing over half of the actual supply growth. If iron ore prices hold, non - mainstream shipments are likely to stay elevated, leading to continuous high supply pressure [14][15][44]. 3.2.2 Demand: Hot Metal Resumption Trails Pre - Holiday Estimates, Short - Term Upside Drive Limited - On the demand side, iron ore demand is analyzed from domestic hot metal production and global steel and iron ore demand. Hot metal production is expected to recover seasonally, but end - user demand for finished steel is flat, and high inventories need time to digest, so short - term hot metal recovery may fall short of pre - holiday expectations, making it difficult to drive prices up [20][51]. - In the long term, global steel consumption is projected to grow at about 1.25%, but this needs long - term data verification. If overseas steel demand recovers, the oversupply pressure on iron ore may ease marginally by mid - year, presenting a good opportunity to build long positions in far - month contracts on dips [21][50][54]. 3.2.3 Inventory: Port Stocks at Historic Highs; De - stocking Pressure Remains - Current 45 - port iron ore inventories have reached the highest level since 2016. Since 2016, the iron ore market has experienced three major accumulation cycles and two de - stocking cycles [25][57]. - The current significant inventory accumulation is due to continuous supply expansion from overseas mines, especially non - mainstream ones. The market may evolve in three ways: prices forcing supply reductions, macro stimulus driving demand recovery, or industry chain profit reshaping and high - inventory normalization. The report leans towards the first path [31][61][62]. 3.3 Conclusion - Short - term: With high - valuation pressure release and policy - speculation expectations, there is a potential for a phased rebound, but it's hard to break above the previous high, and attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average resistance [37][63]. - Medium - term: The logic returns to fundamentals, and selling on rallies is a better strategy as the high - supply and high - inventory contradiction is difficult to alleviate, and the iron ore price needs to drop below 90 USD/t for de - stocking [38][63]. - Medium - to long - term: The market enters a data verification period, focusing on supply - demand rebalancing. If prices drop to lows, far - month contracts are good for buying on dips [39][64]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short i2605 on rallies / short hedge on rallies. - Logic: After key meetings, the market enters a transition window. If positive expectations fall short, the main trading theme will return to industry reality. The high - supply and high - inventory contradiction puts downward pressure on ore prices. Maintaining a short - on - rally approach has a higher risk - reward ratio. - For investors with steady risk preferences, buying put options on rallies can control drawdown risks as option premium costs are relatively low [40][41][65].