铜日报：基本面缺乏有效驱动，铜价回落重测区间下沿-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with an estimated price range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3][40][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On March 3, 2026, the SHFE main contract price fell slightly to 102,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,170 yuan or 1.13% from the previous trading day. The LME price continued to decline to 13,083 US dollars/ton. The SHFE flat - copper discount narrowed to - 215 yuan/ton, strengthening the basis compared to the previous day. However, the LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 74.01 US dollars/ton [1][36][41]. - Position and Trading Volume: The LME position decreased by 3,474 lots to 312,188 lots on March 2, 2026. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,624 tons to 300,505 tons [1][37][41]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Supply is continuously expanding. The Florence copper mine project of Teck Resources in the US has been put into production, with an annual output of 85 million pounds of cathode copper. The Chapi copper mine project in Peru has produced its first batch of cathode copper, with a planned annual output of 10,000 tons. The Briggs copper mine of AlmaMetals plans to expand its resource volume, and the import of recycled copper increased by 3.96% year - on - year in 2025 [2][39][41]. - Demand Side: The demand side shows obvious differentiation. The expansion of the new - energy vehicle industry drives the growth of upstream thermal management components, with the sales volume of air - conditioning boxes in China increasing by 26.7% year - on - year in 2025. However, the overall downstream recovery is slow, and the procurement and sales sentiment in the power and construction sectors is stable, which is difficult to provide strong support [2][42][43]. - Inventory Side: The overall inventory has increased. The LME inventory has increased to 300,505 tons, the SHFE inventory remains at 257,675 tons, and the COMEX inventory has slightly increased to 601,716 short tons. The increase in warehouse receipts reflects the pressure of abundant supply [2][41][42]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Trend: The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks [3][40][45]. - Driving Reasons: - Supply - side Changes: New mine production and expansion (such as the US Florence project) increase the supply pressure [3][41][42]. - Demand - side Changes: Although the demand for new - energy vehicles is growing, the overall recovery is slow, which is not enough to offset the increase in supply [3][41][43]. - Macro - sentiment: The increase in inventory and intraday price fluctuations reflect the market's concern about supply over - capacity [3][44][45]. - Price Change Range: The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3][45].