固定收益部市场日报-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, there was a wave of selling on 10 - yr IG papers, with spreads closing 3 - 5bps wider, while there was better buying on CCAMCL/NTT FRNs. Greater China higher - yielding space, including NWDEVLs and VDNWDLs, showed price declines. In contrast, LGFV remained resilient and stable, with selected higher - yielding names tightening 15 - 30bps [2][3]. - This morning, new NORBK bonds tightened 7 - 10bps, and the new GUOTJU Float tightened 1 - 2bps. Long - end ARAMCO/KSA were 0.3pt weaker, and NWDEVL/VDNWDL were unchanged to 0.3pt higher. There was better selling on JP AT1s and insurance subs [4]. - Petron will redeem the remaining USD162.6mn of PCORPM 5.95 Perp at par on 19 Apr'26. The report maintains a buy on PCORPM 7.35 Perp as a low - beta carry play [4][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, 10 - yr IG papers like LINREI/KUAISH/HKE/TW lifers/BBLTB/NTT/SUMI/SUMITR saw selling, with spreads widening 3 - 5bps. CCAMCL/NTT FRNs had better buying. NWDEVLs were down 0.3 - 2.4pts, VDNWDLs were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower. MTRC Perps/HYSANs/LASUDE 26 were 0.1 - 0.6pt lower, LIFUNGs leaked 0.4 - 1.4pts. Macau gaming complex was unchanged to 0.4pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27' and 29' lost 1.1pts, LNGFOR 27 - 32 were unchanged to 0.3pt lower. In SE Asian space, GLPSPs/VEDLN 28 - 33s lost 0.1 - 0.6pt, IHFLIN 27 - 30 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, PCORPM Perps were unchanged. In KR space, sentiment was weak, and spreads of DAESEC/POHANG/LGENSO/HYNMTR/HYUELE widened 3 - 5bps. In JP space, RESLIF 6.875 Perp lost 0.8pt, NOMURA 7 Perp was 0.3pt lower, and other Japanese and Yankee AT1s and insurance subs lowered by 0.5 - 1.0pt. Middle Eastern bonds leaked 0.3 - 0.8pt [2]. - This morning, new NORBK 4.683 03/10/31 and NORBK 5.356 03/16/36 tightened 7 - 10bps, new GUOTJU Float 09/06/29 tightened 1 - 2bps. Long - end ARAMCO/KSA were 0.3pt weaker, NWDEVL/VDNWDL were unchanged to 0.3pt higher. There was better selling on JP AT1s and insurance subs, and two - way flows on European counterparts. PCORPMs were unchanged to 0.1pt lower, and CKHHs were unchanged [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top Performers: CHGDNU 4.8 09/11/48 price was 94.6 with a change of 0.8; HILOHO 9 3/4 02/05/30 price was 60.5 with a change of 0.6; INFRAB 14 1/2 11/15/28 price was 107.3 with a change of 0.6; ACNRGY 5.1 PERP price was 87.4 with a change of 0.4; MDLNIJ 6 04/30/27 price was 33.4 with a change of 0.3 [5]. - Top Underperformers: CNOOC 5 3/4 01/26/41 price was 109.3 with a change of - 2.5; NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP price was 78.7 with a change of - 2.4; NWDEVL 10.131 PERP price was 81.0 with a change of - 1.8; NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 price was 82.6 with a change of - 1.6; FORTEB 9 3/4 PERP price was 100.0 with a change of - 1.5 [5]. Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (- 0.94%), Dow (- 0.83%), and Nasdaq (- 1.02%) were lower. The EU CPI increased by 1.9% yoy in Feb'26, higher than the market expectation of 1.7%. UST yield bear flattened, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.51%/3.63%/4.06%/4.70% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - Petron will redeem the remaining USD162.6mn of PCORPM 5.95 Perp at par on 19 Apr'26, the first call and coupon reset date. The report maintains a buy on PCORPM 7.35 Perp (first coupon reset in Sep'28) as a low - beta carry play (YTC: 6.1%) due to Petron's smooth access to diverse funding channels and lower refinancing pressure after the exchange and tender offers for PCORPM 5.95 Perp [8]. - In FY25, Petron's revenue declined by 7% yoy to PHP810bn due to lower international prices. However, net income grew 84% yoy to PHP15.6bn, and operating income increased by 28% yoy to PHP37.3bn, reflecting higher sales volumes (up 3% yoy to 113.4mn barrels) and higher refining margin. Petron captured 27.8% of the local oil market share and 25.1% of the LPG sector [9]. - As of Sep'25, Petron's free cash flow jumped 361% to PHP47bn in 9M25 from 9M24, attributable to lower net working capital and capex. Petron spent PHP5bn in capex in 9M25, 45% of the full - year budget. After the exchange offer and new issuance of PCORPM 7.35 Perp in 3Q25, there were net cash inflows of PHP1.8bn. Cash and ST investments increased to PHP42bn from PHP31bn, net leverage was lower, and cash to short - term debt increased to 0.4x. Petron has good access to bank borrowings for refinancing [10]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Guotai Junan International Holdings issued 400mn USD, 3.5 - yr bonds with a coupon of SOFR + 50 and an issue rating of -/BBB+/-; Norinchukin Bank issued 500mn USD 5 - yr bonds with a coupon of 4.683% and 500mn USD 10 - yr bonds with a coupon of 5.356%, with an issue rating of A1/A/- [11]. - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today [11]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 45 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB45bn. Month - to - date, 124 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB102bn, a 58% yoy increase [13]. - ADNOC delays debut dim - sum bond sale amid Middle East hostilities; BHP halted investment in Queensland due to coal royalties; H&H expects up to 6% rise in adjusted EBITDA for FY25; CK Hutchison is in talks to sell 41 global ports; First Pacific unit Maynilad will spend USD132.3mn to reduce unbilled water, and Meralco seeks regulatory approval to recover USD137.5mn in costs; Blackstone talks on USD4bn NWD deal stall over control; Pertamina shipping arm hopes for safe passage of 2 tankers in Persian Gulf; S&P lowered SoftBank's credit rating outlook to negative from stable; China Vanke obtained UOB approval to extend RMB323mn of loans by one year [13].