库存持续累积，多晶硅破位下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon price has continued to decline after the Chinese New Year, and the market is cautious about the industry's "anti-involution" in the short term. The price is still under pressure and may continue to decline towards the cost support area. However, in the medium term, if the supply side gradually contracts, the supply - demand structure may improve marginally, and the polysilicon price is expected to gradually recover and stabilize. In the medium - long term, it may mainly show wide - range fluctuations [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The polysilicon price has continued to fall after the Chinese New Year. Today, the best - performing main contract has fallen by more than 4% to around 42,000 yuan per ton. On one hand, due to antitrust concerns in January, the "anti - involution" expectation of polysilicon has been continuously shaken, and leading silicon wafer enterprises have planned to strengthen capacity integration and mergers. On the other hand, the demand in the first quarter has been weak, and the industry and warehouse receipt inventories have continued to accumulate, which has dragged down the spot price and in turn affected the futures price [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Leading enterprises have stopped production to consume inventory, and the polysilicon supply in February has further declined. The production in February was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The cumulative production from January to February was 116,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The production in March is expected to increase slightly, but the overall supply will still remain at a relatively low level of 80,000 - 90,000 tons. - Demand side: With the end of the previous off - season and the approaching window of the cancellation of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy, the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in February after the festival are expected to increase. In the future, the inventory accumulated in the polysilicon industry is expected to be consumed under the pattern of continuous supply contraction [4] Summary and Strategy - Summary: The polysilicon price has broken through the cost support of 45,000 yuan per ton. In the short term, without clear policy positive signals, the market is cautious about the "anti - involution" of the industry, and the price is still under pressure. In the medium term, if the supply side contracts, the supply - demand structure may improve, and the price is expected to recover and stabilize. In the medium - long term, it may show wide - range fluctuations. - Strategy: Considering the short - term price pressure and the factor of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in May, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between the 06 contract and the far - month contract [5]