碳酸锂日报：地缘不确定性压低风险偏好，碳酸锂回吐禁运溢价-20260304

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On March 3, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped significantly to 150,860 yuan/ton, a 12.3% decline from March 2. The basis strengthened notably to 16,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 18,160 yuan from the previous day [1][63]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest of the main contract shrank by 10.24% to 339,604 lots, while the trading volume expanded by 96.03% to 445,115 lots [1][64]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: On March 3, the price of spodumene concentrate rose 5.91% to 19,075 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate stayed at 85.72%. Upstream lithium salt producers showed strong reluctance to sell, leading to a tight supply [2][65]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 2.34% and 4.72% respectively. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but the cumulative year-on-year sales decreased. Downstream material manufacturers' purchasing intention increased when prices fell, but overall, there was strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][65]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 100,093 physical tons, showing a decreasing trend. Although the warehouse receipt data was not updated, the inventory decline indicated a de - stocking trend [2][66]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The supply side is supported by lithium ore costs but limited by producers' reluctance to sell. The demand side is supported by the growth of new energy vehicle sales but restricted by cautious downstream purchasing. The continuous decline in inventory eases the oversupply pressure. The overall market sentiment is bearish, but the low price may attract bargain - hunting [3][67].