Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Report Core View - The direct impact of the Iran situation on China's steel exports is limited, but the indirect impact is significant, and the short - term monthly impact on exports is about 1.1624 million tons. The futures market shows little reaction. During the Two - Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%. Some mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and the iron - water output in Tangshan is expected to decline in early March and recover in mid - March. Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand declined. The downstream construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is steady. The global iron ore shipment volume from February 23rd to March 1st was 33.407 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 22.3 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 21.469 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3328 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons. The current market trading logic is that the expectations of the Two - Sessions policies, infrastructure, and the resumption of work in the real estate industry still exist. The resumption of work in steel mills is expected to increase molten iron production, which supports prices. However, the terminal demand such as real estate is still weak, the supply and demand of iron ore are relatively loose, and the port inventory is close to the high level of 180 million tons, which suppresses the upward space. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar and iron ore closed up, while hot - rolled coils closed down. At night, rebar closed flat, iron ore closed down, and hot - rolled coils closed up [1] Important Information - By 2027, the cumulative comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules will reach 250,000 tons according to the six - department plan including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. As of February 28th, 16 cities have introduced 21 policies to relax the property market, including Shanghai's "Seven Measures" which lower the purchase threshold for non - Shanghai household residents, expand the purchase eligibility for residents with residence permits, and moderately relax the purchase restrictions within the outer ring. From February 23rd to March 1st, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival, and the cumulative transaction area since the beginning of this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [1] Market Logic - The Iran situation has a limited direct impact on China's steel exports but a significant indirect impact. The short - term monthly impact on exports is about 1.1624 million tons, and the futures market shows little reaction. During the Two - Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%. Some mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and the iron - water output in Tangshan is expected to decline in early March and recover in mid - March, with a relatively limited overall impact. Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand declined, which is in line with expectations. The downstream construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is steady. The global iron ore shipment volume from February 23rd to March 1st was 33.407 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 22.3 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 21.469 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3328 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons [1] Trading Strategy - The current market trading logic is that the expectations of the Two - Sessions policies, infrastructure, and the resumption of work in the real estate industry still exist. The resumption of work in steel mills is expected to increase molten iron production, which supports prices. However, the terminal demand such as real estate is still weak, the supply and demand of iron ore are relatively loose, and the port inventory is close to the high level of 180 million tons, which suppresses the upward space. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term. The support level for rebar is 3000, and the resistance level is 3100. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3180, and the resistance level is 3300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the resistance level is 770. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to operate short - term or wait for the right opportunity and set stop - losses well. In terms of arbitrage, based on the night - session closing price, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is 147. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar and enter the market at a low price, with a recommended take - profit level of over 200 [1]
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Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-03-04 08:09