双焦周报2026/03/03：煤炭情绪偏强，焦煤自身矛盾不显著-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Core View of Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate. After the Spring Festival, the market is generally dull. On the supply side, coal mines are steadily resuming production, and the supply will show a seasonal expansion, which is in line with expectations. Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and the supply remains loose. On the demand side, downstream replenishment is sufficient, the trading sector is mostly on the sidelines, and the demand is weak, with only some rigid - demand purchases. The mine's shipment is weakening, but there is no inventory pressure, and the downstream inventory is sufficient, mainly for consumption. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal is not obvious, and it mainly shows a range - bound trend. Attention should be paid to the macro - expectations of the meeting and the resumption speed of hot metal production [3]. 2.2 Core View of Coke - The coke spot market is generally stable, and there is an expectation of price reduction. Currently, coke enterprises are making good profits. On the supply side, the production is increasing, and independent coke enterprises have good production enthusiasm, with a capacity utilization rate of 74.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal of 247 steel mills is 233.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.8 tons. The profitability of steel mills is lower than that of the same period last year, and the demand driving force is not strong. Steel mills currently have sufficient inventory and will mainly consume it in the future. The supply - demand drive of coke itself is not obvious, and attention should be paid to the resumption of hot metal production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot Market - The spot market trading is average, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, the trading sector is mostly on the sidelines, and the auction prices rise and fall. The short - term coal price is under certain pressure. The low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi is stable at 1,570 yuan/ton, the same as before the Spring Festival; the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton. The actual trading at the Mongolian coal port is cold, the Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and the inventory pressure is large. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal remains stable at 1,000 - 1,010 yuan/ton [9][11]. 3.1.2 Spread and Warehouse Receipt - The current Mongolian coal price converted into warehouse receipts is about 1,150 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [31]. 3.1.3 Supply - During the Spring Festival, the coal mine capacity utilization rate dropped to 68.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 14.26%. The capacity utilization rate in Shanxi dropped to 68.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84%. It showed a seasonal production reduction during the Spring Festival, and now it has entered the resumption stage, with the overall speed in line with expectations. After the Spring Festival, the average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,304 vehicles, and the supply of Mongolian coal was at a high level [3][44]. 3.1.4 Demand - The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream coking and steel enterprises is weak [3]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The upstream mine's shipment is weakening, but there is no inventory pressure. The downstream coking and steel enterprises have sufficient replenishment and mainly consume the previous inventory [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot Market - Coke enterprises have raised the price once, and the market expects the first - round price reduction. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1,470 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is quoted at about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton. The wet - quenched warehouse receipt at the coke port is 1,580 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse receipt is 1,720 yuan/ton [4][86]. 3.2.2 Spread and Warehouse Receipt - Recently, the futures price has fluctuated and fallen, at a discount to the dry - quenched warehouse receipt, and the 5 - 9 spread has fluctuated [92]. 3.2.3 Supply - Coke enterprises are making good profits and have high production enthusiasm. The capacity utilization rate is 74.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47% [4]. 3.2.4 Demand - The daily average output of hot metal of 247 steel mills is 233.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.8 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The profitability of steel mills is at a relatively low level compared with the same period last year, and the blast furnaces have entered the resumption stage after the Spring Festival [4][98]. 3.2.5 Profit - Coke enterprises are making good profits, and the current estimated overall profit of coking is about 70 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Coke enterprises' shipment is weakening, inventory is accumulating, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not strong, and the inventory is sufficient [4]. 3.3 Balance Sheet 3.3.1 Coking Coal Balance Sheet - The production, import, export, total consumption, surplus, inventory, year - on - year production, and year - on - year consumption data from June 2025 to June 2026 are provided. For example, in June 2026, the production is 3,977, the import is 919, the export is 6, the total consumption is 5,023, the surplus is - 132, and the inventory is 3,751 [133]. 3.3.2 Coke Balance Sheet - The production, import, export, total consumption, surplus, inventory, year - on - year production, and year - on - year consumption data from June 2025 to June 2026 are provided. For example, in June 2026, the production is 4,128, the import is 1, the export is 60, the total consumption is 4,017, the surplus is 52, and the inventory is 3,252 [135].