PVC周报2026/03/03：特立独行但蠢蠢欲动-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral [3]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC show high开工 rates, significant inventory accumulation despite near - term export rush, and low overall valuation. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the chemical products perform well, and PVC is also influenced by the overall sentiment and rising ethylene prices. However, the conflict has led to increased shipping costs and more export order cancellations, and exports to the Middle East are also affected. Short - selling should wait for the release of macro - economic sentiment [3]. - The 05 contract has become the near - term contract, and the 5 - 9 spread shows a reverse arbitrage pattern [3]. - The raw material support is neutral. The calcium carbide开工 rate has declined, with the price in Wuhai at 2,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan compared to before the holiday. The semi - coke medium - sized material is reported at 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The ethylene price has increased by 40 US dollars to 751 US dollars/ton [3]. - The supply is neutral - bearish. The domestic PVC开工 rate has rebounded. The overall PVC powder开工 rate is 81.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points. Among them, the calcium carbide - based PVC powder开工 rate is 81.77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points, and the ethylene - based PVC powder开工 rate is 80.40%, a month - on - month increase of 1.53 percentage points [3][17]. - The demand is neutral - bearish. The pipe开工 rate is 13.6%, and the profile开工 rate is 11.30%. The开工 rate has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival. The conflict has led to increased shipping costs and more order cancellations in exports, and the industrial chain has seen significant inventory accumulation [3]. - The profit is neutral - bullish. The single - PVC profit is at a low level, and the comprehensive profit has slightly improved. The calcium carbide integrated profit per ton is - 749 yuan, the Shandong calcium carbide - purchased method profit per ton is - 873 yuan, and the East China ethylene - based profit is 311 yuan/ton. The Northwest comprehensive profit is - 340 yuan/ton, the North China comprehensive profit is - 805 yuan/ton, and the double - ton spread is 2,758 yuan [3]. - Under the background of geopolitical conflicts, the energy and chemical sectors are strong, and the PVC industry, as a part of the chemical sector, is also affected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials - Semi - coke: The开工 rate of semi - coke has declined. The sample enterprise开工 rate is 54.62%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points compared to the previous period. The price is stable, with the Shenmu medium - sized material reported at 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [5][6]. - Calcium carbide: The calcium carbide supply has decreased slightly, and the price has weakened. The calcium carbide price in Wuhai is 2,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan compared to last week. The calcium carbide开工 rate has decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 75.65%, and the overall开工 rate is at a relatively low level [7][11][13]. 3.2 PVC开工 - The weekly PVC开工 rate has rebounded. The overall PVC powder开工 rate this week is 81.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points. Among them, the calcium carbide - based PVC powder开工 rate is 81.77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points, and the ethylene - based PVC powder开工 rate is 80.40%, a month - on - month increase of 1.53 percentage points [15][17]. 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream开工 rate has recovered from a low level. The pipe开工 rate is 13.6%, and the profile开工 rate is 11.30%. The开工 rate has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival [24][29]. 3.4 PVC Inventory - There has been significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The social inventory has increased to 120.1 million tons, an increase of 9.17 million tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the East China sample inventory is 114.7 million tons, an increase of 8.75 million tons, and the South China sample inventory is 5.37 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons. The upstream factory inventory has also significantly increased to 48.29 million tons, an increase of 22.07 million tons compared to the previous period. The industrial chain inventory has seen significant accumulation [32][36][37]. 3.5 PVC Profit - The calcium carbide - based method has suffered serious losses. The Xinjiang integrated profit is - 749 yuan/ton, and the Northwest integrated profit is - 1,212 yuan. The loss of the calcium carbide - purchased method has narrowed, with the Northwest calcium carbide - purchased method profit per ton at - 370 yuan and the North China calcium carbide - purchased method profit at - 873 yuan/ton [39][49]. - The ethylene - based method profit has weakened. The East China ethylene - based profit is 311 yuan/ton, and the North China ethylene - based profit is 461 yuan/ton. The rising ethylene price has compressed the profit [50][52]. - The comprehensive profit is weak, and the double - ton spread has rebounded from a low level. The Northwest comprehensive profit is - 340 yuan/ton, and the Shandong comprehensive profit is - 805 yuan/ton. The double - ton spread has rebounded to 2,758 yuan/ton [55][59]. 3.6 Import and Export - In 2025, exports were good, and attention should be paid to the situation of export rush. From January to December, the year - on - year export volume increased. The annual PVC powder export volume was 3.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.05%. In December, the export volume was 314,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,800 tons. From January to December, the PVC powder import volume was 226,600 tons, basically the same as last year [61][64][65]. - The floor export volume has declined. From January to December, the cumulative floor export volume was 4.155 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [66][70]. 3.7 Related Commodities - The cement demand has shown average performance. Since 2024, the real estate demand has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the开工 rate has been at a low level [73][75]. 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The main contract has strengthened, the spread between contracts has increased in volatility, and the warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled. The 05 contract has decreased from 4,948 last week to 4,939. The 5 - 9 spread is - 132. On March 2, the warehouse receipt volume was 82,980, a decrease of 11,960 compared to last week [78][82]. 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet shows the production, demand, import, export, and surplus of PVC from 2026/1 to 2026/12, as well as the year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand [84].