BOHAI SECURITIES·2026-03-04 08:47Steel Industry - The demand recovery in the steel sector post-holiday is expected to take time, with attention on the impact of self-imposed emission reductions by steel companies during the "Two Sessions" and related "anti-involution" policies [1][16] - In February 2026, the national steel industry PMI index was 45.4, indicating ongoing operational pressure, with a significant drop in output index to 44.1 and new order index to 39.5, reflecting weak supply and demand [16][19] - The total steel inventory increased by 43.19% to 18.26 million tons by February 27, 2026, indicating accumulated inventory pressure [27] Copper Industry - Domestic downstream enterprises are gradually resuming operations, but market demand remains limited, with high prices suppressing demand [1][36] - In December 2025, domestic refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.76%, while copper material production was 2.229 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% [36] - LME copper inventory increased by 44.99% to 253,700 tons, and SHFE copper inventory rose by 85.27% to 290,600 tons during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [36][38] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector faced weak supply and demand in February, with a significant increase in domestic inventory and weak prices for electrolytic aluminum [1][43] - Domestic alumina production in December 2025 was 8.011 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.70%, while electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 2.87% [44] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 6.09% to 465,600 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 99.42% to 289,300 tons during the same period [44][46] Precious Metals - Gold prices initially dropped due to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies but later rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies [1][52] - From January 30 to February 27, 2026, COMEX gold prices increased by 7.92% to $5,296.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold prices decreased by 1.16% to ¥1,147.90 per gram [52] Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is expected to see optimistic demand in March, with supply likely to remain tight, supporting high carbonate lithium prices [2][54] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8.83% to ¥172,500 per ton during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [54][55] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices have risen due to tight supply and strong holding sentiment among sellers, with the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 18.90% to ¥890,000 per ton [2][71] - The price of tungsten concentrate increased by 31.00% to ¥786,000 per ton during the same period [77]