Orient Securities·2026-03-04 08:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [7] Core Insights - The report presents a contrarian view, suggesting that while there are expectations for a market turning point due to declining listings and stabilizing prices in core cities, further observation is necessary. The improvement in the housing market is attributed to specific factors, including seasonal demand and policy expectations, particularly in Shanghai [2][3] - The government’s policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector. Despite expectations for a new round of large-scale real estate stimulus, the report indicates that substantial changes in policy are unlikely [3] - The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" has significantly lowered entry barriers for first-time homebuyers, indicating a shift from inventory reduction to demand expansion in Shanghai's housing market. This policy is expected to stimulate market recovery, particularly in the context of seasonal demand [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector has shown a weekly increase of 0.61%, with Hong Kong-listed property companies outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 3.62% [14][19] - Individual stock performance highlights include a 12.72% increase for Black Peony in A-shares and a 7.59% increase for Sun Hung Kai Properties in H-shares [19][22] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - The average listing price in first-tier cities has seen a slight week-on-week decline of 0.11%, while the number of listings has increased by 0.36% in first-tier cities, aligning with seasonal trends [24][30] - Transaction volumes for second-hand homes have shown significant recovery since the Spring Festival, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing a year-on-year increase of 104% [38][53] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales have rebounded post-Spring Festival, with a year-on-year increase of 41.35% in ten sample cities, although Shanghai and Shenzhen saw declines of 3.2% and 40% respectively [62] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, indicating a tightening market [64][67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on local state-owned enterprises and nationally strong real estate companies in Shanghai and other first-tier cities, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy easing and market stabilization [6]