CMS·2026-03-04 08:48Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for China Energy Construction (601868.SH) [1] Core Views - China Energy Construction holds a leading position in traditional energy sectors such as thermal, hydro, and nuclear power, while actively expanding into renewable energy and energy storage markets, showcasing significant competitive advantages [1] - The company is strategically shifting from a focus on engineering construction to a dual-driven model of engineering construction and investment operations, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The company has a comprehensive layout across the entire energy construction industry chain, integrating various business segments to create a synergistic ecosystem [6] Summary by Sections 1. Energy Construction Leader with Full Industry Chain Layout - The company covers multiple fields including traditional energy, renewable energy, and comprehensive smart energy, with a complete service capability from planning and design to construction and operation [12] - Revenue and profit have shown steady growth, with a CAGR of 12.08% for operating income and 10.43% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [20] - The engineering construction business contributes the majority of revenue and gross profit, while the investment operation business is increasingly contributing to gross profit [24] 2. Stable Traditional Energy and Growth from New Energy - The company has over 80% market share in thermal power and more than 30% in hydro power, with significant growth potential in nuclear power and transmission and transformation sectors [6][46] - The company is expected to benefit from major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which could contribute an annual revenue increase of 67-420 billion yuan [62] 3. Comprehensive Layout in Wind, Solar, Hydrogen, and Deep Participation in Nuclear Fusion - The company has rapidly increased its installed capacity in renewable energy, reaching 15.0363 million kilowatts by mid-2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [6] - The strategic shift towards investment operations is expected to enhance overall profitability, with high-margin investment operations increasing their share [6] - The company is actively involved in hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion projects, positioning itself for high growth in these emerging sectors [6] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 445.578 billion, 468.921 billion, and 502.749 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 89.53 billion, 95.71 billion, and 102.75 billion yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.7x, 11.0x, and 10.2x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]