大类资产及择时观点月报（2026.03）：黄金信号转为负向-20260304

• The macro momentum model allocation signal for March 2026 indicates negative signals for the stock market, positive signals for the bond market, and negative signals for the gold market based on the latest data at the end of February 2026[4][9][12] - The counter-cyclical allocation model predicts the macroeconomic environment for Q1 2026 as Slowdown, with the allocation ratios for underlying assets being 20% for CSI 300, 0% for CNI 2000, 30% for Nanhua Commodity, and 50% for ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index[7] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor portfolio from January 2015 to February 2026 is 143.48%, with an excess return of 52.95%[14] - The industry composite trend factor for February 2026 is 0.24, maintaining a positive signal[14] - The macro momentum model uses various sub-factors such as PMI, PPI, CFETS RMB Index, and others to generate signals for different markets[9][12] - The counter-cyclical allocation model uses credit spread and term spread to predict economic growth and inflation changes for the next quarter, classifying the macro environment into Growth, Inflation, and Slowdown stages[7] - The industry composite trend factor is constructed from industry-level indicators to observe market trends, with significant absolute values indicating potential market uptrends or downtrends[13] - The cumulative net value of the counter-cyclical strategy based on a 20-80 stock-bond benchmark is shown in the report[10] - The industry composite trend factor portfolio's performance and signals are illustrated with the Wind All A Index[16][17]