原油月报：短期交易中东紧张局势，警惕油价大幅冲高回落-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Stronger than the Market (Maintained)" [1] Core Views - In February 2026, international oil prices showed a volatile and upward trend. Geopolitical risks, such as the tense relations between the US and Venezuela and the turmoil in the Middle East, have become the main factors supporting oil prices. The Iran - US geopolitical situation is highly tense, which has a significant impact on oil prices [2]. - In the short term, the sharp escalation of the Iranian situation and the temporary suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may drive oil prices to rise rapidly. However, considering the short - term nature of the conflict and the low probability of the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz, there is a risk of a sharp drop in oil prices after a rapid increase. In the medium term, the oil price center is expected to be around $55 - 60 per barrel [10][56] Summary by Directory 1. OPEC - 1.1 OPEC: Significant decline in crude oil production in multiple countries, beware of future disturbances in Iranian oil supply - In January 2026, the crude oil production of OPEC's 12 countries was 28,453 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135 thousand barrels per day. The production of OPEC+ (excluding countries without quota restrictions) was 37,186 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 264 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month. Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Kazakhstan saw significant month - on - month production decreases due to geopolitical conflicts, US sanctions, and other factors. OPEC+ plans to suspend the production increase plan from January to March 2026 [11] - 1.2 OPEC: The phased shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan has affected supply - In January 2026, the crude oil production of Non - OPEC DoC was 13,996 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 304 thousand barrels per day. The production of Kazakhstan decreased by 249 thousand barrels per day due to the phased shutdown of two major oil fields. Russia's production decreased by 58 thousand barrels per day due to sanctions [19] - 1.3 Canada's rig count rebounds, oil sands production may increase, while the number of inventory wells and completed wells in the US decreases - In January 2026, the global rig count was 1,892, a month - on - month increase of 39. Canada's rig count increased by 26, and its oil sands production is expected to rise. In the US, the number of new wells drilled in the seven major shale oil regions increased by 6, the number of completed new wells decreased by 41, and the number of inventory wells increased by 18 [24] - 1.4 OPEC: It is expected that the global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 - OPEC predicts that the global oil demand in 2026 will be 106.5 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38 million barrels per day. China's oil demand will be 17.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200 thousand barrels per day. In 2027, the global oil demand is expected to be 107.9 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.34 million barrels per day, and China's oil demand will be 17.3 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200 thousand barrels per day [25] 2. EIA - 2.1 EIA: It is expected that global crude oil will continue to accumulate inventory, and the average price of Brent oil in 2026E may drop to $58 per barrel - EIA predicts that the supply - demand gap of global crude oil and related liquid fuels from 2025 to 2027 will be +2.7 million, +3.06 million, and +2.68 million barrels per day respectively. Due to the early completion of the OPEC+ production increase plan and the limited increase in oil demand, global crude oil will continue to accumulate inventory. EIA expects the price of Brent oil to drop to $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 per barrel in 2027 [28] - 2.2 EIA: The growth rate of global oil supply may slow down significantly in 2027, and South America will be the main source of incremental supply - In February 2026, the global crude oil production was 79.70 million barrels per day. OPEC+ and the US provided the main supply increments in 2025. EIA expects that the global oil production will increase by 1.56 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.9 million barrels per day in 2027. The production increase of OPEC+ may slow down significantly in 2027, and the production of the US may decrease, while South America will become the main source of incremental supply [33] - 2.3 EIA: It is expected that the global oil demand will increase by 1.2 million and 1.28 million barrels per day from 2026 to 2027 - In February 2026, the global oil demand was 104.47 million barrels per day. EIA predicts that the global oil demand will be 104.79 million barrels per day in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million barrels per day, and 106.07 million barrels per day in 2027, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million barrels per day. China and India are the main sources of growth in global oil consumption [36] 3. IEA - 3.1 IEA: At the beginning of 2026, the geopolitical turmoil and extreme weather led to a decrease in supply in many places - IEA estimates that the global oil supply increased by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. In 2026, the average global crude oil production is expected to be 84.6 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.79 million barrels per day. Extreme weather, supply interruptions in Kazakhstan, and sanctions on Russia have affected oil supply and price trends [37] - 3.2 IEA: China remains the main contributor to oil demand growth, and petrochemical raw material consumption may dominate the incremental demand - IEA predicts that the global oil demand will increase by about 0.77 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.85 million barrels per day in 2026. China is the main contributor to growth, and petrochemical raw material products will account for more than half of the oil demand growth in 2026 [40] 4. Dynamic Data - 4.1 US crude oil and refined oil dynamic data - The data shows the trends of US gasoline inventory, aviation kerosene inventory, gasoline daily demand, distillate fuel oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and commercial crude oil inventory [48] - 4.2 China's crude oil and refined oil dynamic data - The data shows the trends of China's crude oil monthly import volume, gasoline monthly production, Shandong refinery operating rate, and diesel monthly production [51] 5. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, beware of the risk of a sharp drop in oil prices after a rapid increase. In the medium term, the oil price center is expected to be around $55 - 60 per barrel. It is recommended to focus on domestic oil companies that are actively exploring domestic oil and gas resources, have clear goals for increasing reserves and production, and have great potential for overseas market development, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, CNOOC Energy Technology & Services, Zhongman Petroleum, and Intercontinental Oil & Gas [56]