产业格局弱稳，钢矿低位震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The steel market is mainly driven by domestic factors. After the Spring Festival, the rebar fundamentals remain weak with continuous inventory accumulation, pressuring steel prices. However, policy expectations are strengthening. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [5] - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered to some extent, but concerns remain. With high inventory and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. Policy expectations are positive. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [5] - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, iron ore demand has improved, but the growth space is limited, while supply remains high, and the ore fundamentals are weak, pressuring ore prices. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In February, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points. All five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI were below the critical point. [7] - According to Mysteel's incomplete statistics, as of March 4, five major construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in January 2026, with a total of about 602.9 billion yuan. China State Construction's new contract amount in January was 399.5 billion yuan, with a 1.6% year - on - year increase in construction business. The housing construction business reached 274.3 billion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year increase, and the real estate business contract sales were 15.7 billion yuan, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [8] - Brazil's Fomento do Brasil Mineração won a 15 - year lease contract for the North Pier of the Port of Natal. The port is expected to start iron ore export in the second half of 2028. It is strategically located close to Europe and has an area of about 396,000 square meters with multiple berths. [9] 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,160 yuan, Tianjin was 3,120 yuan, and the national average was 3,299 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan, Tianjin was 3,140 yuan, and the national average was 3,266 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,910 yuan, unchanged. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan, unchanged. - PB powder: The price in Shandong ports was 747 yuan, down 3 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate: The price was 757 yuan, unchanged. - Ocean freight (Australia): 10.95 yuan, up 0.53 yuan; (Brazil) 24.56 yuan, up 0.63 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): 99.62 yuan, down 0.45 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): 100.55 yuan, up 0.20 yuan. [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,071 | 0.13 | 3,085 | 3,061 | 710,699 | - 77,573 | 1,839,511 | - 42,377 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,212 | 0.00 | 3,229 | 3,207 | 280,903 | - 88,862 | 1,435,635 | - 16,252 | | Iron ore | - | 752.0 | 0.40 | 753.0 | 745.0 | 230,305 | - 9,253 | 525,573 | - 7,288 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory). - Iron Ore Inventory: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory. - Steel Mill Production: Included charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent electric furnace steel mill operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 94 - independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit situation. [14] 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have changed. Construction steel mill production weakened, with weekly output down 52,800 tons. Inventory is high, so supply - side benefits are limited. Demand is weak, with weekly apparent demand still at a low level. Policy expectations are strengthening due to upcoming major meetings. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [38] - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mill production stabilized, with weekly output down 0.20 tons. Inventory is accumulating at a high level, and supply pressure is large. Demand has recovered, but there are concerns. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [38] - Iron Ore: Supply and demand have changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore terminal consumption is rising. However, the growth space is limited due to accumulated industrial contradictions in the steel market. Supply is increasing as port arrivals are expected to rise. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [39]