玉米淀粉日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price continues to rise, while the price of Northeast corn is also rising, but the purchase price at northern ports remains stable today. The price of North China wheat is relatively strong, and the price gap between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, as farmers sell more grain in March, it is expected that the upside potential of Northeast corn spot and the 05 corn contract is limited. The price of starch is mainly influenced by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. Currently, the inventory of corn starch has increased, and the spot price of starch is also rising. It is expected that the 05 starch contract will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - C2601 closed at 2340, up 5 (0.21%), with a trading volume of 1,784 (up 44.34%) and an open interest of 5,815 (down 1.31%) - C2605 closed at 2379, up 6 (0.25%), with a trading volume of 555,128 (down 12.83%) and an open interest of 1,464,914 (up 0.62%) - C2509 closed at 2396, up 12 (0.50%), with a trading volume of 22,210 (down 25.08%) and an open interest of 116,380 (down 1.49%) - CS2601 closed at 2669, up 9 (0.34%), with a trading volume of 27 (down 66.25%) and an open interest of 110 (down 0.90%) - CS2605 closed at 2692, up 14 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 98,736 (up 9.88%) and an open interest of 254,705 (up 3.75%) - CS2509 closed at 2705, up 12 (0.44%), with a trading volume of 1,802 (down 9.04%) and an open interest of 15,521 (up 0.62%) [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The spot price in Qinggang is 2180, in Songyuan Jiajia is 2230, in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2406, in Shouguang is 2390, in Jinzhou Port is 2390, in Nantong Port is 2490, and in Guangdong Port is 2510. The basis is -216, -166, 10, -6, 11, 94, and 114 respectively - Starch: The spot price of Longfeng is 2780, of COFCO is 2700, of Yihai (Heilongjiang) is 2750, of Yufeng is 2900, of Jinyu is 2920, of Zhucheng Xingmao is 2970, and of Hengren Industry and Trade is 2850. The basis is 88, 8, 58, 208, 228, 278, and 158 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Spread - Corn Inter - delivery Spread: C01 - C05 is -39 (down 1), C05 - C09 is -17 (down 6), C09 - C01 is 56 (up 7) - Starch Inter - delivery Spread: CS01 - CS05 is -23 (down 5), CS05 - CS09 is -13 (up 2), CS09 - CS01 is 36 (up 3) - Cross - variety Spread: CS09 - C09 is 309 (unchanged), CS01 - C01 is 329 (up 4), CS05 - C05 is 313 (up 8) [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - US corn has rebounded, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, but it is still oscillating at the bottom. The in - quota tariff for US corn is 11%, and for sorghum is 12%. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July at 2245 yuan. The flat - price at northern ports is stable today, around 2390 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area continues to rise. The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises in North China has increased, but the supply of corn is affected by the weather and is relatively low. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, reducing the cost - effectiveness of corn. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March, but the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of Northeast corn is still low, the price has risen, and the port inventory is low. It is expected that the upside potential of the 05 corn contract is limited [4][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises in Shandong is still low, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2880 yuan, and the spot price of starch in the Northeast is also rising. This week, the inventory of corn starch has increased to 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory preparation. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been basically over 600 yuan. Today, the contribution of by - products in Shandong is 626 yuan (675 yuan in Heilongjiang). The price of by - products has been relatively stable recently and is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. Affected by the weather, the supply of corn has decreased, the downstream operating rate has increased, the spot price of corn has risen significantly, and the enterprises are still suffering large losses. It is expected that the 05 starch contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Unilateral Trading - The 05 US corn contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. For the 05 corn contract, consider short - selling at high levels with a light position and set stop - losses [9]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage - For the 05 corn and starch contracts, consider widening the spread when the price difference is low [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the flat - price of corn at northern ports, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract [14][15][19].