铁矿日报：发运增加，铁水复苏-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain slightly bullish in the short - term. The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure are difficult to alleviate in the short - term, while the iron water production on the demand side has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. The holding of the Two Sessions and positive macro - expectations support the market, and the futures still show a BACK structure under a positive basis [2][5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger, closing at 752 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or - 0.2% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 230,000 lots, the open interest was 526,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.695 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 745, and a bullish rebound is expected in the near future [1] - The mainstream spot prices at ports decreased slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the Super Special powder was 639 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main swap contract was 98.85 (+0.65) US dollars/ton, showing a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend [1] - The basis of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 28.7 yuan/ton, showing a slight expansion. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 14 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrivals this period were at a low level and decreased slightly month - on - month, but are expected to recover later. On the demand side, due to the staggered time of blast furnace restart and maintenance, the iron water production increased significantly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and the rigid demand increased marginally. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of iron water. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2] - Iron ore port inventories increased month - on - month, while the inventory of ships at berth decreased. During the Spring Festival, steel mills mainly consumed their inventories, and the factory inventories decreased significantly. With the holding of the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] - The supply - side shipments have recovered, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to alleviate in the short - term. With the Two Sessions approaching and geopolitical disturbances increasing, there are still uncertainties in the macro - environment. However, after the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase, and the pressure on fundamentals will still be large after the weakening of macro - disturbances [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy coordination has been strengthened, high - frequency consumption is warm, and the real estate market has improved marginally. In February, fiscal and monetary injections were higher than the seasonal average, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and the social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Although real estate transactions are still at a low level, the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization has increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The quota of special bonds has been increased, but the investment structure has been adjusted, and the support for the black chain from infrastructure may be limited [4] - Overseas, consumer confidence has recovered, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks have increased. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee have fermented, affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. With Trump strengthening his stance on Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising" [4]