国投期货农产品日报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean oil: ななな [1] - Palm oil: な☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean meal: ななな [1] - Rapeseed meal: ななな [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand pattern of agricultural products is not tight, and the supply and demand side has a certain hedging safety cushion against geopolitical risks and macro fluctuations. Short-term attention should be paid to the guidance of the Middle East situation [1][3] - The state of strong oil and weak meal in agricultural products may continue, and attention should be paid to soybean customs clearance policies and imported soybean auctions [2] - After the short-term negative factors of rapeseed meal are digested, it is stronger than soybean meal after stabilizing [2] - The short-term market driver is mainly the uncertainty of Middle East energy, and attention should be paid to its impact on vegetable oils [3] - The Dalian corn futures are expected to run strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of grain sales in Northeast China, state reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [5] - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain low for a long time to promote industry capacity reduction, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after the premium of far - month contracts over the spot and near - month contracts narrows [6] - After the post - Spring Festival phased correction of egg spot prices, the low replenishment situation in the second half of 2025 is expected to gradually drive the spot price to rise, and long positions can be arranged at low positions on the futures market [7] Summary by Category Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean futures contract decreased in position and declined today, and the US soybean was in a high - level volatile and strong state. As the Brazilian harvest season approaches, the overall supply and demand of soybeans tend to be loose [2] - The domestic soybean/soybean meal inventory has increased compared with last week, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is much higher than the average level of the past five years [2] - After the 5.9% anti - dumping duty is imposed on imported Canadian rapeseed, the short - term negative factors are basically digested, and rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal after stabilizing [2] Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil) - The domestic vegetable oil as a whole showed a trend of rising first and then falling [3] - The price of the strong US RIND4 has dropped significantly recently. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and energy prices have soared [3] Corn - The closing prices of Beigang Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port remained flat, and the purchase prices of Northeast acquisition enterprises were mainly flat with sporadic increases [5] - The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 35, remaining at a low level. Shandong acquisition enterprises raised prices more, with an increase range of 0.5 - 2 cents per catty [5] - The inventory of north - south ports is still at a relatively low level, and the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased significantly [5] Live Pigs - The live pig futures continued the weak adjustment, and the spot price fluctuated slightly [6] - The central government purchased 10,000 tons of frozen pork for reserve today. The pig price is in the second bottom - seeking stage and has fallen to the historical bear - market bottom range [6] - The出栏体重 is still high, and the inventory pressure needs to be reduced. Potential supporting factors include the entry of second - fattening pigs, frozen product warehousing, and frozen meat purchases for reserve [6] Eggs - The spot price of eggs continued to decline. After the post - Spring Festival and back - to - school stocking ended, the spot price was in a weak adjustment [7] - In February, the inventory of laying hens increased slightly, and the monthly chick replenishment volume was basically stable month - on - month and decreased by about 3% year - on - year [7] - In the long run, the number of newly - laid hens is lower than the number of old hens to be culled each month, and the inventory is in a downward trend [7]