Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.10%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 4.43%, the main contract of platinum closed down 4.55%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.78%. [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflationary pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong. [1] - The air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, affecting industries such as shipping, aviation, and oil. The world faces the threat of rising energy costs and an increased risk of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may become long - term. [1] - In January, US producer prices accelerated, and enterprises raised prices to transfer tariff costs. The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mentioned the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts within the year, and the next rate cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly. [1] - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend. [1] Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - International prices: The closing price of the active Comex gold contract was $5099.50 per ounce, down $236.40 (-4.43%) from the previous day and down $61.00 (-1.18%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $5033.65 per ounce, down $280.25 (-5.27%) from the previous day and down $86.60 (-1.69%) from the previous week. [2] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1153.06 yuan per gram, down 28.94 yuan (-2.45%) from the previous day and up 2.00 yuan (0.17%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1152.95 yuan per gram, down 28.61 yuan (-2.42%) from the previous day and up 7.88 yuan (0.69%) from the previous week. [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 3880 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 18.58 tons (1.73%). [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] - International prices: The closing price of the active Comex silver contract was $82.30 per ounce, down $7.31 (-8.16%) from the previous day and down $4.77 (-5.48%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $81.31 per ounce, down $13.32 (-14.07%) from the previous day and down $6.80 (-7.72%) from the previous week. [3] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21854.00 yuan per kilogram, up 209.00 yuan (0.97%) from the previous day and down 1175.00 yuan (-5.10%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 21561.00 yuan per kilogram, up 134.00 yuan (0.63%) from the previous day and down 570.00 yuan (-2.58%) from the previous week. [3] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1821 lots, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings decreased by 98.36 tons (-0.61%). [3][4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - International prices: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract was $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from the previous week. The price of London platinum was $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from the previous week. [4] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 545.09 yuan per gram, up 20.04 yuan (3.82%) from the previous day and up 1.10 yuan (0.20%) from the previous week. [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots. [4] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] - International prices: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract was $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from the previous week. The price of London palladium was $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from the previous week. [5] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from the previous week. [5] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots. [5] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit and discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%. The reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 3.65%. [6] - The Fed's total assets were $66645.86 billion, up $2.16 billion (0.00%) from the previous week. M2 increased by 4.29% year - on - year, up 0.36 percentage points from the previous week. [6] - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.40%, up 0.05 (2.13%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous week. The US dollar index was 99.27, up 0.72 (0.73%) from the previous day and up 1.61 (1.65%) from the previous week. [6] - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also provided in detail. [6][7][8] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is presented in a table. For example, at the March 18, 2026 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 325 - 350 range is 2.7%, and in the 350 - 375 range is 97.3%. [10]
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260304
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2026-03-04 10:29