鸡蛋日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3615, up 9 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3365, up 22; JD09 closed at 3780, up 3 [2] - Cross - month Spreads: 01 - 05 spread was 250, down 13; 05 - 09 spread was - 415, up 19; 09 - 01 spread was 165, down 6 [2] - Ratio with Feed: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.54, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.20, up 0.01. Similar data for other contracts are also provided [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country decreased [2][4] - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.89 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [6] 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2403, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3148, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.63, up 0.00 [2] - Profits: The profit per chicken was - 1.31 yuan, down 3.15 from the previous day [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - Inventory: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in February was about 43.3 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - Culling: In the week of February 26, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 8.78 million, an increase of 42% from the previous week. The average culling age was 501 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - Sales: As of the week of February 26, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 4278 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [6] - Profit: As of February 26, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.35 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming on February 26 was - 11.85 yuan/chicken, down 1.27 yuan/chicken from the previous week [6] - Inventory Days: As of the week of February 26, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08 days from the previous week [6] 3.5 Trading Logic - The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, the overall capacity reduction has weakened due to the recent good egg price. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [7] 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]